This naive assumption shared by many armchair theorists in Europe that Erdogan can (or ever will) adhere to a rules-based system is exactly what has fueled his neo-Ottoman aspirations and led to his current brazen actions against EU and across the EastMed. https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-cant-have-it-both-ways-with-turkey-libya/
EU can’t have it both ways with Turkey

Europe should pivot from half-hearted confrontation to a rules-based relationship with Ankara.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-cant-have-it-both-ways-with-turkey-libya/
This gross miscalculation about Erdogan had also been prevalent across many State Department officials during the Obama era (many now reside at US think-tanks of importance). Thankfully, key US officials (not in White House) today seem to have shifted their thinking since then.
The Sultan cannot, will not, and does not want to be tamed. Soft-power does not work on him. He can, however, be countered with effective (but escalatory) means of non-military coercion (e.g. economic sanctions, end of any armament supplies to Turkey from EU/NATO), to begin with.
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