For those who haven’t paid close attention: support for Independence is now polling 55/45 in Scotland, and next May’s election will almost certainly return a landslide majority for the SNP. A “consultative” referendum (like the Brexit vote) seems likely. /1 https://twitter.com/cstross/status/1286253082318340097

2/ Boris Johnson is personally unpopular in Scotland, has badly botched the UK’s response to COVID19, and comes off poorly in comparison with the much more competent Nicola Sturgeon. Insofar as modern politics is personal, he’s starting from a long way behind. Also …

3/ Anti-Scottish bigotry? Boris Johnson published a poem joking about the 'extermination' of the 'verminous' Scottish people in the Spectator in 2004: https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-published-poem-friendly-fire-james-michie-extermination-of-scottish-people-2019-6

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4/ ... It helps to remember how hated Margaret Thatcher was in Scotland. By positioning himself as heir to Thatcher and Churchill (who sent TANKS into Glasgow in 1919), Boris is about the worst imaginable leader for a unionist anti-independence campaign.

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5/ This has been brewing since the Brexit referendum (Scotland voted strongly to stay in the EU and was ignored). Johnson has woken up to the likelihood of Scottish secession during his term as prime minister and panicked, after years of ignoring or inflaming the problem.