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1/x OK, the thread I promised on the political fortunes of Karyn Polito, following up on this great piece in @CommonWealthMag by @shiraschoenberg here: https://commonwealthmagazine.org/politics/is-karyn-polito-angling-for-a-third-term-or-a-first/ #mapoli
2/x First, praise: Karyn is one of our best politicians and citizens. She won her state representative seat in the 11th Worcester five times without opposition. She lost the statewide treasurer race to Steve Grossman in 2010, but got more votes than Baker did in 2010.
3/x She was probably the second-most impressive Republican in 2010, with the exception of Scott Brown, who won a freakish special election that year. She had a huge, conservative following, despite being pro-choice. It was cool to like her back then.
4/x Karyn also has great retail political skills. She does well in small venues. Many said she was better than Baker on the trail in 2014. She is professional and prepared. Crucially, she has never been a Republican with national political citizenship; her identity is local.
5/x However, sometime between 2010 and 2014, Baker had an epiphany about Massachusetts politics that Polito did not. Yes, under Baker, she seems far more moderate than she was as a state rep, but no one is sure of what she actually believes.
6/x For the article, she says she voted in 2016, but wouldn’t say for who. In 2019 she said she “didn’t support Trump as a candidate.” That’s all very vague, eh? I am confident she pulled the lever for Trump in 2016. For I know many people like her who did. (She won’t in 2020.)
7/x Let’s go to her political future. It would seem obvious that she would run for governor, given her statewide name recognition and support among so many cities and towns across the state, where she has spent so much time. But there are huge problems.
8/x First, nobody is sure what Karyn actually believes on the litmus tests of #mapoli. For proof: some of our too-conservative base still likes her. (The Broadside crew and MassGOP chairman Jim Lyons oppose her.) Can you picture her saying, “Black Lives Matter” and meaning it?
9/x Second, Baker is such a titanic presence in #mapoli; it’s hard to develop her own. Yes, she raises a lot of money. She does a lot in the munis, and that matters. But there is no theory of a statewide coalition for Polito. She’d get crushed in the cities like all Republicans.
10/x There is also no reason to think Baker can transfer much of his reputation and coalition to her. Everyone has looked for Baker coattails in elections and in votes behind his endorsements of candidates. No one has found convincing evidence.
11/x Third - and the biggest problem - is the Democrats. Charlie Baker is holding back a dam of excellent Democratic talent who could easily build statewide coalitions. They just get better the longer he is in office. Once he steps down, there will be many aspirants.
12/x It is easy to see a candidate like Maura Healey crushing Polito at the polls. But others could, also. There is so much pent-up progressive energy to get a Democratic governor.
13/x As I wrote in “Drinking the Sand”, a “Make Massachusetts Blue Again” campaign by someone like Healey would be impossible to stop. Karyn would be dogged endlessly by the state and national party’s problems.
14/x But unlike Baker, the public isn’t convinced she rejects all the sins of the MassGOP and Trump. (She would have a terrible time getting the party’s nomination, as Baker will if he runs again.) But if she can’t repudiate an extreme GOP convincingly, she isn’t viable statewide
15/x It is my firm belief that she will never be elected governor. Yes, I could perhaps imagine some wild scenario where she endorses Joe Biden before November, and commits all sorts of Republican heresies to prove to Baker’s coalition she can be trusted.
16/x But I don’t see that happening. The only higher office I can see her winning is the second congressional district. She doesn’t need a statewide coalition to win that. And the Democrats’ talent pool for that office would be far easier to beat. US Senate? Impossible.
17/17 So while I am a big fan of Karyn, I don’t see the corner office for her. I think Charlie Baker is the last Republican governor in Massachusetts for the foreseeable future. That will last as long as he wants it, but he can’t bequeath it to Polito. /END
