GW 37 Analysis/ GW 38 Preview:

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Burnley showed their ability to keep a clean sheet with an xGc of 0.46 against Norwich (tbf they had 2 red cards). Their final game of the season is against BRI (H), who have produced 6 big chances since the restart, 5 of which came against Liverpool!

That means in 6/7 games they have played they accumulated 1 big chance. Whole backline are FPL options for GW 38+

Erik Pieters produced 12 points with a skeptical assist to an own goal. He registered 3 shots, 1 SoT, 2 AA, xG 0.12, xA 0.12...

As a 4.3 mil defender in a strong burnley defense he offers great value. Nick Pope is close to winning Golden Glove, and Burnley will do everything to keep it tight at the back. As a result, I think a Burnley defender can offer 6 points + and Pieters is cheap/attackkng.

Chris Wood was highly sought after this GW and returned points to his hopeful managers. He had a decent game, but against a 9 man Norwich people expected more. He produced 3 shots, 1 SoT, 2 AA, xG 0.58, xA 0.09...

Wood is a great differential in GW 38 against a poor Brighton side who have conceded on average 3 big chances per game since the restart.

Some people may look towards Dwight Mcneil as a differential this week...

However, his stats since the restart aren’t very promising. Since the restart, Mcneil has average 1.5 shot (pg), 0.375 SoT(pg), 1 AA(pg). I would avoid and target Burnley defence/Chris Wood.

Southampton displayed their good form once again beating Bournemouth 2-0. Danny Ings had a busy game, producing 3 shots, 2 SoT, 1 AA, xG 0.89. He scored a goal, but missed a penalty. Without the xG added from taking a penalty (~0.75), his xG totaled 0.14. Extreme clinicality.

Spurs impressively beat Leicester 3-0 with Harry Kane producing a haul for his owners. Spurs struggled to take lots of shots, but were clinical with the chances given. Some interesting stats (TOT vs LEI) :

xG - 0.83 vs 1.48
Shots - 7 vs 24
SoT - 3 vs 6
Big chances - 1 vs 0

Spurs don’t create much, but when they do Harry Kane is involved. Kane has been involved in 9/12 big chances created by spurs since the restart. Harry Kane could be a huge differential captain in GW 38 for people lagging behind. I would avoid Son, and target Kane.

On average since the restart, Kane has taken 3 SpG, 1.5 SoT, 0.9 AA. Stats back him to possibly continue his form if his finishing/spurs are clinical. As a whole their attack doesn’t create much.

Since the restart, spurs produced 1.5 big chances per game, in comparison: United create 3.3 big chances per game, and Man City produce 4.5 big chances per game.

As seen before Leicester dominated the stats against Spurs, but their shots seem to be from ambitious areas due to their low xG per shot (0.05) compared to Spurs (0.11). Either way Jamie Vardy was quite busy taking 6 shots, amounting an xG of 0.55.

Jamie Vardy is notorious for scoring against the “Top 6” and will be extra motivated in GW 38 with Champions League football on the line for Leicester. Leicester (4.0m) wing back Luke Thomas had a busy game, it is worth noting he made 3 KP! Free hitters could use as bench fodder.

Brighton vs Newcastle was quite uneventful, but it is worth noting Leandro Trossard took 3 Shots, made 2 KP, with xG 0.54, xA 0.11. In the past 6 GW’s he has taken 15 shots, with an xG 2.44. Netting 2 goals in that period. Burnley (A) is tough, but watch out for next season.

If your looking for a GW 38 defensive transfer, I would turn away from Sheffield this week. They seem to be quite on and off, but more importantly Southampton (A) is difficult especially considering Danny Ings’s form, and chase for the Golden Boot. Target Burnley GK/DEF.

Wolves continued their defensive brilliance conceding an xGc of 0.44! Brilliant defensive work from them since the restart, average xGc per game being 0.61...

Matt Doherty owners rewarded with 12 points after a long and worrying period of poor attacking statistics. Doherty managed 1 shot, 1 KP, xA 0.71. Heat-maps show he spent the majority of the game in Palace’s half.

Raul Jimenez continues to show average statistics compared to before the restart. Pre restart Jimenez produced: 3.4 SpG, 1.2 SoTpG, 1.5 AApG, and 0.7 big chances per game. Since the restart, he has produced: 2.25 SpG, 1.125 SoTpG, 0.75 AApG, 0.25 big chances per game. Avoid.

Raheem Sterling had a day yesterday producing 6 shots, 5 SoT, 2 KP, xG 1.75. Huge swing in points if you owned/captained him against another City player. Sterling is on fire with 49 points in the past 4 GW’s while being benched for two of them...

He came off early against Watford most likely to be rested before Norwich (H). I suspect he will be going all out for the Golden Boot, and think he is a huge player to own/captain for GW 38.

Sterling: (GW1 - 29) vs (GW 30 - GW 37)

Shots per game: 3 v 2.9
SoT per game: 1 vs 1.75
AA per game: 1.5 vs 1.13
xG + xA per game: 0.74 vs 0.7
G per game: 0.46 vs 1
A per game: 0.08 vs 0.5
Big chances scored: 10/23 (0.43) vs 3/8 (0.375)
Big chances per game: 0.96 vs 1.00

As the stats show, Sterling hasn’t necessarily been better statistically before or after the restart, but instead he has been far more clinical. He is riding confidence and form at the moment, and I fully expect him to explode against Norwich (H).

Phil Foden put up some seriously impressive statistics this week for a 5.5 midfielder. Foden produced 7 shots, 1 SoT, xG 0.56. From the eye test, he was heavily involved, far advanced, and taking shots at all chances. Sadly, I predict him to be benched this week for Dilva/Mahrez.

KDB continues to post impressive stats, producing 3 shots, 1 SoT, 6 AA, xG 0.18, xA 0.96. KDB is FPL gold, and likely to register points this week, but I am worried with the introduction of David Silva KDB will be less involved in FPL returns...

David Silva is almost guaranteed to play his last game for the club, and might prove to be a better option especially for players behind in their ML’s. David Silva has seen sporadic playing time, but proved his FPL capabilities each time...

This time, he is bound to play close to the whole game. In the 5 games Dilva has started since restart, he produced 10 shots, 13 KP, xG 2.06, xA 2.17. I back David Silva to return this week, but I’m worried he may not be worth switching a City midfielder out for a -4.

Gabby Jesus registered 3 shots, 1 KP, xG 0.5. Since the restart, Gabby Jesus has had 7 big chances, 13 AA, 9 SoT, 28 shots, and 3 goals. In comparison, Sterling has had 8 big chances, 9 AA, 14 SoT, 23 shots, 8 goals. Very similar stats, but Sterling almost double Jesus’s points.

Either Jesus has been very unlucky, or a terrible finisher...

Aubameyang is being highly touted among the free hitter community, and rightly so as someone with 20 goals...

He is a difficult player to judge statistically as he goes on and enough, but 20 goals this year is enough to take a punt if you are someone behind in his ML. Watford (H) is an easy game on paper, but they are fighting for safety and I am not a fan of betting against that.

United had a dissapointing FPL display against West Ham. Greenwood was the star getting 1 goal, 3 shots, 2 SoT, 1 AA, xG 0.15, xA 0.25. Recently, he has been quiet, but he is proving his worth as a Man U asset/ budget option.

Martial continued his good form with an assist, producing : 3 shots, 1 SoT, 2 AA, xG 0.17, xA 0.09. Although United have a difficult fixture Leicester (A) I would keep faith as it is a fight for Champions League, and could go in any direction. Both teams hungry.

Rashford disappointed only managing 1 shot, and 1 SoT, which was from 25 yards out. West Ham played a low block with 5 atb so it was difficult for United to break them down.

Rashford vs Martial statistical breakdown since restart:
Big chances : 7 vs 6
Big chances scored: 3 vs 4
Big chances created: 5 vs 3
Goals: 3 vs 6
FPL assist: 3 vs 5
Shots: 19 vs 19
SoT: 9 vs 10
AA: 8 vs 10
xG + xA: 6.05 vs 5.09

As you can see, Rashford has the better stats, and is definitely underperforming. Martial is much more clinical at the moment, and due to that has 72 points compared to Rashford’s 41. I would advise making a sideway move, but Martial seems the better choice for GW 38 due to form.

Antonio is on penalties! He also produced 4 shots, 2 SoT, xG 0.95. With Aston Villa (H) next it is tough to judge, but if another player needs to make way in order to fund a Sterling/Salah/ Kane then Antonio is a very valid pick. 4 SpG, 2 SoTpG, 1.5 AApG since the restart!

Christian Pulisic just ate my words from last week netting a brilliant goal and assist from the bench. He registered 3 shots, 1 SoT, 1 AA, xG 0.49, xA 0.65 from just 31 minutes! Chelsea are up against Wolves next week, a game which could decide Champions League spots

Wolves have managed an xGc of
0.61 since the restart and will make it very difficult for Chelsea. Pulisic will start, and could easily return on the form he is in. Besides Pulisic I would stay away from most Chelsea assets as Wolves have shown their capability to keep a CS

TAA finally returned big for his owners after a long overdue wait. He produced 1 goal, 1 assist, from 1 shot, 1 SoT, 2 AA, with an xG 0.03, xA 0.37. TAA should be going nowhere with Newcastle (A) next.

Robertson was very lively netting 1 assist, with 3 AA, xA 0.82. Robertson has arguably been the better of the two Liverpool wingbacks since the restart, netting 4A, 2G.

Mane was non existent yesterday unable to register a shot, or AA in the 86 minutes he played. Salah managed to get 3 shots, 1 SoT, 1 AA, xG 0.27, xA 0.08. Despite both of them having quiet games, I believe the game against Newcastle will be a huge opportunity.

Free Hitters could climb the ranks getting Salah/Mane, as people seem to have forgot about them. They are both still extremely capable of huge hauls. I will be owning one of them as a punt to catch up my ML leader.

And thats it! It’s been a blast creating these threads for the community and I hope people have found them very useful. Any retweets/comments/likes are extremely appreciated. I will be staying active throughout the summer. Stay tuned #FPL