Lahore's mean Surface Urban Heat Island (SUHI) effect, according to a 2020 study, was estimated to be 4.8 °C in 2016. Another 2015 study, estimated that in 2000, the mean SUHI was 1.7 °C.

So, yes, anyone who estimates it to be 2-3 °C higher over the decades is correct. But... https://twitter.com/thelahorewala/status/1285973487341928448

While there indeed is a strong relationship with urban vegetation (~9% decrease based on NDVI changes, 1996-2016), a significant increase in mean SUHI has been caused by Land-use/Land-class "transition" driven by Housing (or horizontal sprawl).

Unlike cities elsewhere, where...

SUHI is centered in the "Core" of the city, which in Lahore's case is Main Boulevard/Jail rd/Mall rd, here the effect is most notable in *new* multiple cores which developed in the last 2 decades as well as peripheries of the city, which are currently undergoing "transition"..

The "Transition phase" is particularly troubling, because much like built-up areas (high heat absorption+storage), the conversion of land into Vacant plots and roads, waiting for Houses to be built, results in a high temperatures. Remember the empty new DHAs and Bahria phases...

In the short-term:

- SUHI effect will become more intense, due to increasing LST mean with more horizontal sprawl
- Old cores of the city, like Mall road and Model Town, appear cooler not just comparatively, but they also become cooler because their "transition" has concluded

In the long-term, however:

- Mean SUHI for Lahore will stabilize, but remain high
- Mean temperature increases caused due to Warming combined with SUHI will cause freak heat-waves and climate events
- Vegetation recovery alone won't help; sprawl has to stop