KEPA ARRIZABALAGA THREAD

See attached photos for references to statistics on Kepa.

Kepa is a player who continues to divide opinion within the fanbase; so, is he currently in bad form, having a bad season, or is this a longer trend?

Kepa’s stats in his first season of top-flight football within LaLiga was @ Athletic Bilboa, who had a successful season finishing w/63 points & 7th in LaLiga. Kepa had strong performances with 23 starts, eventually winning the starting job for the following season.

Kepa tried to replicate to improve upon his 1st season during his 2nd season & overall was able to marginally raise his save %, but suffered a drastic increase to GAp90. His CS % also dropped significantly. This could be due to Bilbao having a poor overall season, finishing 16th

Kepa then transferred to Chelsea, which was an odd connection, given that Chelsea’s interest was out of force due to Thibaut Coutois’s demands to leave the club with 12-months left on his contract. Kepa arrived, did well enough to start, and was off to a good start.

Overall, Kepa was able to improve statistically from his 2nd to 3rd season: significantly decreased GAp90 and significantly increased clean sheet %, yet surprisingly his save % slightly dropped. Is this an odd fluke of the data, or something more telling?

In 2019/2020, Kepa began to struggle massively, both statistically and with the eye-test. At times it seems the defenders and GK have a disconnect in this squad, and that may be born out of lack of trust and/or leadership from the GK to the defense, and vice versa.

However, Kepa’s save percentage significantly decreased in 2019/2020, the second consecutive season this statistic has decreased. Even worse, his GAp90 significantly increased, and his clean sheet % significantly decreased. Overall, he is seemingly regressing at this stage.

From a business and player performance perspective, Courtois to Kepa has been a simply terrible deal. Sunken cost fallacy may begin to be discussed within the club at this point, and any chance to move on from Kepa may be prioritized for both club and player’s sake.

From a financial standpoint & amortized value of Kepa’s contract, it may not be feasible to find many buyers, especially compounded by Kepa’s drastically declining form this season. Adding in the financial impact of COVID19, it makes it more unlikely the club recover their losses

Chelsea may not need to sign Oblak or a world-class GK: they may just need to sign a GK that can have overall improved play, save %, and leadership with the defensive backline.

STATS