So many things to say here. Where to start?

How about by (a) acknowledging that #Chicago does have a serious problem with violent crime, while also (b) observing that this is obviously NOT why Trump is sending federal officers here, except that it gives him an excuse? 1/ https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1286029901741555714
For one thing, while violent crime in Chicago is bad, it's not the worst in the country. That dubious honor is held by St. Louis. New Orleans and Baton Rouge, La., also consistently rank near the top. Baltimore and Detroit are bad, yes, but so is Memphis, Tenn. 2/
And all of these cities have higher murder rates than Chicago. So why send troops here?

Because Chicago is the capital of Democratic defiance to Donald Trump. Our governors, our mayors and our people have all told him, in no uncertain terms, what we think of him. 3/
It's not just our politics. It's not just our diversity. It's not just our no-BS attitude. It's also that we're actually keeping this COVID thing mostly under control, inasmuch as anyone can in the face of his botched response, and that's humiliating.

But mostly, it's Obama. 4/
Dude is all about dominance, and Chicago is the home of the political enemy he couldn't beat because he was never given the chance to. So he has to try to come onto our turf—well, send other people, since he doesn't dare come himself—and show who's boss. 5/
More on that later. For now, let's talk about the actual crime problem, which has various causes, some of which our Democratic "leadership" (in the form of Richard J. Daley and Rahm Emanuel, who—let's be clear—are NOT liberals) has indisputably made worse. 6/
Authoritarian binary thinkers who equate "Democrat" with "liberal" think it must have been permissive liberal policies that led to Chicago's violent crime problem, because they have no idea how things work here.

The machine is a CONSERVATIVE institution. 7/
It supports certain superficially liberal policies at the state level, because that's how it wins votes—but never if it would entail opening up the ballot to open-minded outsiders or cutting off its financial gravy train. 8/
Liberal reformers get elected despite the machine, not because of it.

So how have Daley and Emanuel made crime worse?

- Underfunding public schools, and closing neighborhood schools in order to provide real estate giveaways to charters. 9/
This has had a negative effect on literacy, one of the factors that historically correlates with declines in violence: people who read have a better understanding of others' points of view. It also forced young people to move through rival gang territory to get to school. 10/
- Tacitly encouraging housing and lending practices among landlords and banks that have kept the city segregated and impeded housing mobility even among middle-class people of color. Seeing how other people live is another thing that correlates with reduced violence. 11/
- Ignoring the success of the @CureViolence model—treating violence as a public health issue, and getting people to apply reason to their conflicts—which has been tried several times, yet seems to get its funding yanked every time it starts to gain traction. 12/
- Shuttering mental health clinics in high-poverty neighborhoods. You think denying people access to behavioral health and drug treatment is going to make them LESS inclined to act out violently? 13/
- Most significantly, supporting a police department that often seems to go out of its way to alienate black and Latino residents and show them that they can't count on it to deliver justice when they have a dispute in need of resolution. 14/
We have NEVER had a mayoral administration in my adult life (Harold Washington died shortly before I turned 18) that didn't coddle the cops, even when their worst tendencies were on display. And that's how we got, among other things, Jon Burge. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Burge  15/
That's how we got the Laquan McDonald video coverup, a mistake bad enough to scare Rahm Emanuel out of running for a third term. 16/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Laquan_McDonald
And that's how we got a federal consent decree from the Department of Justice telling the CPD to clean up its damn act. 17/ http://chicagopoliceconsentdecree.org/about/ 
So why is this bad? We want the cops to be tough on crime, right?

No, we want the cops to be EFFECTIVE. Which isn't the same thing at all. People have to be able to TRUST a police department for it to have any effect on violent crime. 18/
They have to see the police as an entity that they can count on to set the machinery of justice in motion when they have disputes with others, so that they don't have to take it into their own hands.

Because that's what all this crime is: people pursuing "justice." 19/
When you can't trust the state to deliver justice, what have you got? Only your own reputation as someone who won't let a wrong go unanswered. In the absence of rule of law, you get honor cultures. And with honor cultures, you get honor killings. 20/
Of course, all these violent acts that are supposed to serve as deterrents to others just perpetuate cycles of retribution. But no one trusts the CPD to step in, because the CPD has given black and Latino residents every reason on earth NOT to trust it. 21/
On the contrary, most people of color will tell you that calling the police is the worst thing you can do. At best, they'll take a report that never gets followed up on. At worst, you get pegged as a snitch, or the police mistake YOU for a perp and beat you or kill you. 22/
You cannot, cannot, CANNOT reduce violence without giving people access to genuine justice. As long as they have no other recourse, they'll seek "justice" themselves, violently. That is the long and the short of it. 24/
I did forget to mention one thing in my bullet points: jobs and commerce. Even before COVID-19, the South Side was a gigantic job hole. People want to work, but there are no jobs to be found over a swath more than half the size of the entire city. 25/
When people have something to lose—a job that gives them economic security and a source of pride—they're less likely to do anything that might put it at risk. When they have nothing to lose, look out. 26/
Go ahead, try to tell me there was no connection between pandemic-related unemployment and looting.

Anyway, the point is, there are lots of reasons why the rate of violent crime in Chicago remains stubbornly high.

And Trump's goons will solve NONE of them. 27/
On the contrary, they'll make things worse. Because Chicago police, especially white Chicago police, especially the execrable FOP (may it burn in the heat of a thousand suns), are openly supportive of Trump and of Trumpian authoritarianism. 28/
So when Chicagoans see CPD welcoming federal goons into our city, they'll be even less inclined to trust the police than they were to begin with. Those who don't see CPD as a danger to be avoided or an enemy to be resisted now, will. 29/
To say nothing of the violence that Trump's goons will deliberately instigate, or accidentally instigate through malice and/or stupidity, or that CPD will engage in once it feels emboldened by their presence. 30/
One final thought: Even if it would do something to help drive down violent crime in Chicago, which it won't, can that possibly be Trump's reason for sending troops?

Of course not. It makes no sense, given what we know. 31/ https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1286029901741555714
And what we know, more deeply than anything else, is that Trump is a bullshitter.

He doesn't care whether what he says is true or not. Much of the time, he doesn't even know. He also doesn't care whether you believe what he's saying. 32/
All he cares about is whether the things he's saying make you give him what he wants. Words don't have MEANING to him. They have UTILITY. They're levers to pull, buttons to push, to try to achieve the desired result.

So pay attention to what he's DOING, and ask yourself: 33/
What is he trying to make happen by saying he's sending goons "to help drive down violent crime"? What do these words DO?

They make anyone dumb enough to listen to him equate "Chicagoan" with "violent criminal." 34/
And since most of his base already equate "Chicagoan" with "Democrat" and "liberal," they make those listeners equate "Democrat" and "liberal" with "violent criminal." 35/
Therefore, per these slippery fallacies, every protester in Chicago is a violent criminal. Every liberal is a violent criminal. Every Democrat, including the mayor and the governor, is a violent criminal. And "criminal" isn't something you do, it's something you ARE. 36/
So this is a pretext—just as Chad Wolf used in Portland, Ore., when he said, "Oooh! GRAFFITI!" and used it as an excuse to round up random protesters without probable cause and throw them into unmarked vans, and said he was doing it to deal with "violent anarchists." 37/
What he wants is for any Chicagoan who resists anything he does, or commands his goons to do, to be seen by enough people as a "violent criminal" that he can get away with throwing THEM into unmarked vans and detaining them without charge in a basement. 38/
Here's a view of the "war zone" outside my window.

Don't be fooled by this incoherent fascist charlatan or any of his marginally more articulate henchmen.

This isn't "help." This is an attempted occupation. A dominance move. But also a threat. 39/
He knows he'll get his posterior kicked in a free and fair election. So he—and the Republicans who still back him, who number appallingly many—will take any and every measure to prevent November's election from being free and fair. Including canceling it outright, if need be. 40/
These troops are one of the tools he plans to use, not just here in Chicago, but everywhere, if he can get away with it.

Don't be naïve, and don't be surprised. Recognize it, and prepare. 41/41
P.S. @chicagosmayor, you know that everything I'm saying is true. Can you afford not to be ABSOLUTELY sure whether or not the CPD is in your corner?
You can follow @KeithAmmann.
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