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Total mortalities in the #USA that can reasonably be attributed to the #COVID19 pandemic since the first reported death in Washington State on Feb 29 are eclipsing the great killing events of American history, rivalling the 1918 H1N1 flu. Follow me here... https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/29/us/coronavirus-washington-death.html
According to the CDC, "The 1918 H1N1 flu pandemic...killed ...an estimated 675,000 people in the United States. An unusual characteristic of this virus was the high death rate it caused among healthy adults 15 to 34 years of age." https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/reconstruction-1918-virus.html
The 1918 flu lowered the average life expectancy in the U.S. "by more than 12 years," the CDC notes. "A comparable death rate has not been observed during any of the known flu seasons or pandemics that have occurred either prior to or following the 1918 pandemic." Until now...
Last week the #Trump White House instructed States to bypass the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( #CDC) in reporting daily #COVID19 updates, without providing its own transparent and reliable reporting platform. As a result... https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-data-cdc-hospitals-trump-administration/
We must turn to non-governmental sources for the best updates on the spread & effects of the virus in American society. At 7:36 pm CET today the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center says there are 142,401 confirmed US deaths from #COVID19. This isn't the actual death toll...
A new study in JAMA Internal Medicine (American Medical Assoc.) found that the much higher number of deaths from March thru May 2020 (compared to the same period in recent years) were still 28% higher than could be accounted for by reported #COVID19 deaths https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980
The study notes that "Monitoring excess deaths has been used as a method for tracking influenza mortality for more than a century" & says "Excess deaths provide an estimate of the full #COVID19 burden and indicate that official tallies likely undercount deaths due to the virus."
The study goes into greater detail about important variables to be considered & the authors are cautious not to draw far reaching conclusions. If anything, they appear to have erred on the side of caution in their own interpretations of data & the results of their own models...
Adjusting the American #COVID19 death toll to date (as reported by Johns Hopkins U) based on these findings, without further adjustments to increase the margin of error out of a principle of excessive caution, could potentially add 40,000 deaths to the current death toll...
Even if we cut in half the extrapolated figure of 28% excess deaths (based on the number of deaths above normal levels cited in the JAMA study) we'd still see a death toll of 162,280 in the US adjusted from confirmed deaths in 2020 since the 1st reported #mortality from #COVID19.
To put this in perspective, the largest loss of American lives during any continuous 5-month period in the past 100 years attributable to an extraordinary or non-recurring event was the loss of US lives in WWII from December 1, 1944 to April 30, 1945....
http://cgsc.cdmhost.com/cdm/compoundobject/collection/p4013coll8/id/130
http://cgsc.cdmhost.com/cdm/compoundobject/collection/p4013coll8/id/130
That death toll was 144,739. See columns 3 & 4 in the attached image--official casualties & mortality statistics reported by the U.S. Adjutant General. They comprise the total loss of life from all the branches of US military in all theaters of WWII during the months in question.
That death toll is where the #USA is today with #COVID19, or where it may well be tomorrow, WITHOUT any adjustments that take into account the findings of the JAMA Internal Medicine study by Weinberger, Chen, Cohen, et al. regarding the under-reporting of deaths from #COVID19...
Even without the adjustment, the death toll of the COVID19 emergency in the USA has eclipsed the deadliest equivalent period for US forces in WWII because we're still more than a week away from the 5-month mark. With the adjustment, the pandemic far surpasses that grim milestone.
Either way, the #coronavirus emergency is now comparable to the 1918 H1N1 flu pandemic that eventually killed an estimated 675,000 people in the #USA. Any efforts by government authorities to turn a blind eye to this fact amount not just to dereliction of duty--they are criminal.
