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Might write a quick piece on the Lib Dem polling.
Although headline figures *look* like they're losing a bunch of voters to Con, they're actually losing hardly any, and in fact what they're losing to Con is mostly balanced by what they're gaining.
They're losing mainly to Lab.
Although headline figures *look* like they're losing a bunch of voters to Con, they're actually losing hardly any, and in fact what they're losing to Con is mostly balanced by what they're gaining.
They're losing mainly to Lab.
And many of their voters show up as 'dont know' in polls, which suppresses their figures.
This is actually good news for the Lib Dems because in those key Lib/Con marginals, I v much suspect those 2019 LD -> Lab votes in polls will go back to LD. They won't vote Lab pointlessly.
This is actually good news for the Lib Dems because in those key Lib/Con marginals, I v much suspect those 2019 LD -> Lab votes in polls will go back to LD. They won't vote Lab pointlessly.
But, it probably does mean LDs are probably dramatically losing their (already small) vote share in the Lab/Con marginals. A *lot* of lost deposits in 2024 if those 2019 LD->Lab voters stick with Lab in those Lab/con marginals.
In effect, we're seeing signs that Starmer as Lab leader makes the Lab/LD vote distribute very efficiently across marginals - just like what occurred with Blair and Ashdown back in the day.
This is good news.
BUT: what are the implications for the LD party?
This is good news.
BUT: what are the implications for the LD party?
IMO, it suggests that any strategy of going after Lab votes is probably a waste of time. Unless a *lot* of socially liberal votes flock from Lab to LD, the LD vote is probably going to fall precipitously in Lab/LD marginals as things stand today.
That said, that's not many seats, and they're all Lab-held anyway.
Obviously there's the possibility Starmer pisses off social liberals enough that LDs could win some over from Lab with Moran as leader. This isn't wholly unplausible, but I think it would be a long shot.
Obviously there's the possibility Starmer pisses off social liberals enough that LDs could win some over from Lab with Moran as leader. This isn't wholly unplausible, but I think it would be a long shot.
As in, I really doubt they'd win over enough for it to matter, (especially if Lab is winning over Tory votes), given Lab majorities in seats with lots of social liberals are so big, and the Lib Dems are typically on <10% in such seats.
I just find it very difficult to foresee a scenario where the net swing between LD/Lab is *not* in Lab's favour.
But anyway - clearly this is quite complex, and it would help if I could throw some data in to ground my points.
So if I find time, I might write about it.
But anyway - clearly this is quite complex, and it would help if I could throw some data in to ground my points.
So if I find time, I might write about it.
