Trump’s top officials, disappointed that the war with China they long predicted is not forthcoming on its own, appear determined to arrange one—cold or hot—before they might lose power. Not to carefully confront real problems but to shatter a peace, come what may. 1/

There are a lot of people working in good faith to confront the hard truths of US-China relations. But too many of us are getting sucked into the strategy-free charge to some kind of war.

To avoid complicity, we must speak up. 2/

We must speak up because even the relatively informed, news-following public is understandably preoccupied and forgets the danger of egging on the Chinese government, tit-for-tat, to take turns breaking down tools for problem solving. 3/

Any dissent, likely including this here, is quickly dismissed as advocacy for a return to the heady days of 2000 (WTO accession) or 2008 (before the post-Olympics turn in Chinede governance).

If anyone is advocating a move backward, I don’t know them. 4/

The administration even does a couple of on-their-own reasonable things from time to time. But an otherwise good deed is not to be cheered amidst arson. The arson is all history will remember. 5/

One simple charge for my fellow China policy thinkers: Some of our ideas mean friction with China that is called for and righteous. We should push hard for what’s right. But when pushing for smart friction, we must also advocate against dumb friction that endangers everyone. 6/

If we allow our calibrated strategic thinking to be decalibrated and combined only with escalatory moves, the likely downsides run from waste and fear to total war.

And hope for effective global action to mitigate and adapt to climate change could be extinguished forever. 7/