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#TropicalDepression7 has intensified into #TropicalStormGonzalo. There seems to be a small eye trying to open up. Small systems like these can wrap up quickly, and easily fall apart just as fast. Some examples of this include Beryl 2018 or Danny 2015.
The HWRF shows #Gonzalo becoming a hurricane, and making landfall in Barbados around saturday night, then entering the caribbean and still strengthening. The HMON has it pass very close to Barbados, but shows a landfall as a strong TS in St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
The official forecast has #Gonzalo peaking at 65 mph on Friday, and the track takes it through the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean. Beyond 5 days, it is not known if it will survive the Caribbean. If it does, it could be a problem if it enters the Gulf. Watching closely...
#91L is looking more interesting this morning. Recon should be flying out to investigate this disturbance later today to sample the atmosphere and then input that data into the models for better forecasts.
The NHC is giving #91L a 50% chance of forming in the next 5 days. Most forecast models show #91L making landfall somewhere in Texas, most likely as a tropical storm.
Lastly, #TropicalStormDouglas in the CPAC is predicted to make landfall in Hawaii as a tropical storm. Still many days away so things can still change.
