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#SystemDynamics (SD) is like Bhagwan Vishnu's Dashavatars. You can't see it. But it's present in most fields. Including yours.
Here are some glimpses of System Dynamics hidden in plain sight.
A thread 1/n
Here are some glimpses of System Dynamics hidden in plain sight.
A thread 1/n
But first, what is System Dynamics?
For twitter: It is the behavior (the dynamics) of interacting parts (a system) .
And Systems have LOOPS.
Eg: Parts A, B and C can interact as the loop A->B->C->A.
What is so special about loops of influence?
2/n
For twitter: It is the behavior (the dynamics) of interacting parts (a system) .
And Systems have LOOPS.
Eg: Parts A, B and C can interact as the loop A->B->C->A.
What is so special about loops of influence?
2/n
The loops give rise to complex behaviors that makes the system more than the sum of its parts. This is the Emergent Property of systems.
In the video, see how the population pulsates wildly.
Thanks @ncasenmare for the wonderful tools you build.
3/n
In the video, see how the population pulsates wildly.
Thanks @ncasenmare for the wonderful tools you build.
3/n
In #ClimateChange
@schandillia explains how melting glaciers caused locust plague in India.
If locusts slow human activity; it slows climate change; thus stopping the locusts. Loop Complete, well not really. Real life has many other hidden loops.
4/n https://twitter.com/Schandillia/status/1265536013948063746
@schandillia explains how melting glaciers caused locust plague in India.
If locusts slow human activity; it slows climate change; thus stopping the locusts. Loop Complete, well not really. Real life has many other hidden loops.
4/n https://twitter.com/Schandillia/status/1265536013948063746
#Negotiations
@VossNegotiation replaced BATNA with Tactical Empathy. He shows how negotiations are emotional systems solving emotional needs, even with terrorists.
His book gives you superpowers.
He doesn't talk about systems directly.
5/n
@VossNegotiation replaced BATNA with Tactical Empathy. He shows how negotiations are emotional systems solving emotional needs, even with terrorists.
His book gives you superpowers.
He doesn't talk about systems directly.
5/n
#Manufacturing
Systems give rise to behaviors.
GM shut down an Auto plant due to lazy workers. Toyota took over and ran the NUMMI plant efficiently with the same workers. It wasn't the workers fault but the systems.
6/n
Systems give rise to behaviors.
GM shut down an Auto plant due to lazy workers. Toyota took over and ran the NUMMI plant efficiently with the same workers. It wasn't the workers fault but the systems.
6/n
#CityPlanning
SD makes it easier to foresee second order effects.
Jay Forrester showed how low cost housing can inadvertently worsen living conditions for the poor. Jay Forrester is considered the father of System Dynamics.
Follow @S_D_Society for great threads on SD
7/n
SD makes it easier to foresee second order effects.
Jay Forrester showed how low cost housing can inadvertently worsen living conditions for the poor. Jay Forrester is considered the father of System Dynamics.
Follow @S_D_Society for great threads on SD
7/n
#SupplyChain
Delays in loops can cost jobs.
In @petersenge 's book, he explores how a manager of a plant sees a spike in demand, ramps up production and just as the goods roll off, demand dies and he is left with a ton of inventory.
https://readingraphics.com/understanding-systems-thinking-the-beer-game/
8/n
Delays in loops can cost jobs.
In @petersenge 's book, he explores how a manager of a plant sees a spike in demand, ramps up production and just as the goods roll off, demand dies and he is left with a ton of inventory.
https://readingraphics.com/understanding-systems-thinking-the-beer-game/
8/n
#Military
I discovered this in a talk by @mpoppendieck. Must watch.
In 1800s the Generals moved away from the battlefield. This delayed the flow of information. So the units were given the freedom to take necessary actions to complete the mission.
9/n
I discovered this in a talk by @mpoppendieck. Must watch.
In 1800s the Generals moved away from the battlefield. This delayed the flow of information. So the units were given the freedom to take necessary actions to complete the mission.
9/n
#Sales (1/3)
This is from my experience. When sales dip, managers press for immediate results. Agents then concentrate to convert leads and neglect building the pipeline. Soon conversion increases and sales pick up.
All is well. But this is the calm before the storm.
10/n
This is from my experience. When sales dip, managers press for immediate results. Agents then concentrate to convert leads and neglect building the pipeline. Soon conversion increases and sales pick up.
All is well. But this is the calm before the storm.
10/n
#Sales (2/3)
Soon the pipeline gets exhausted and sales start to plummet again. This time, no amount of pressure helps as pipeline lacks qualified leads.
This is the Capability Trap mostly seen with new managers.
https://proceedings.systemdynamics.org/2017/proceed/papers/P1325.pdf
But there's something even worse...
11/n
Soon the pipeline gets exhausted and sales start to plummet again. This time, no amount of pressure helps as pipeline lacks qualified leads.
This is the Capability Trap mostly seen with new managers.
https://proceedings.systemdynamics.org/2017/proceed/papers/P1325.pdf
But there's something even worse...
11/n
#Sales (3/3)
After reviving sales post the first dip, the manager gets promoted and moves out. So his replacement got blamed for the second dip! And there is no way out for him.
This is the fundamental attribution error due to delayed feedback.
https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/fundamental-attribution-error/
12/n
After reviving sales post the first dip, the manager gets promoted and moves out. So his replacement got blamed for the second dip! And there is no way out for him.
This is the fundamental attribution error due to delayed feedback.
https://thedecisionlab.com/biases/fundamental-attribution-error/
12/n
#SoftwareDevelopment
Capability trap is common in Tech. There is pressure to "release features". Engineers spend less time on refactoring. Slowly code quality degrades, more bugs, slowed dev and finally a re-write.
Avoid the traps. Follow @johncutlefish for great advice.
13/n
Capability trap is common in Tech. There is pressure to "release features". Engineers spend less time on refactoring. Slowly code quality degrades, more bugs, slowed dev and finally a re-write.
Avoid the traps. Follow @johncutlefish for great advice.
13/n
#MonetaryPolicy
In monetary policy, you can see how a small change in repo rate can have a large impact on the economy as the loops amplify the changes as it propagates through the system. Similar to PID controls in electronics.
The tail wags the dog.
14/n
In monetary policy, you can see how a small change in repo rate can have a large impact on the economy as the loops amplify the changes as it propagates through the system. Similar to PID controls in electronics.
The tail wags the dog.
14/n
#NaturalResources (1/2)
Tragedy of the commons.
Villagers start fishin in the local pond. Each anxious the other will take more. Not wanting to be left behind, they overfish. Soon the fishes are depleted.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tragedy-of-the-commons.asp
But strangely, there are exceptions...
15/n
Tragedy of the commons.
Villagers start fishin in the local pond. Each anxious the other will take more. Not wanting to be left behind, they overfish. Soon the fishes are depleted.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tragedy-of-the-commons.asp
But strangely, there are exceptions...
15/n
#NaturalResources (2/2)
Ostroms law: If it works in practice, it must work in theory.
Elinor Ostrom showed how traditional community systems overcame the Tragedy of the Commons. She got the 2009 Nobel prize.
https://evonomics.com/tragedy-of-the-commons-elinor-ostrom/
16/n
Ostroms law: If it works in practice, it must work in theory.
Elinor Ostrom showed how traditional community systems overcame the Tragedy of the Commons. She got the 2009 Nobel prize.
https://evonomics.com/tragedy-of-the-commons-elinor-ostrom/
16/n
#Dieting
Going LCHF? Read how our body has three different pathways to generate energy. With LCHF you are shifting your body from the carbs to the fats system (again simplified)
To learn more, no better person to follow than @ProfTimNoakes.
https://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/nutrient-utilization-in-humans-metabolism-pathways-14234029/
17/n
Going LCHF? Read how our body has three different pathways to generate energy. With LCHF you are shifting your body from the carbs to the fats system (again simplified)
To learn more, no better person to follow than @ProfTimNoakes.
https://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/nutrient-utilization-in-humans-metabolism-pathways-14234029/
17/n
#TeamPerformance (1/4)
Psychological Safety
Many studies showed psychological safety is the #1 factor for high performance. Performance is an emergent property of interacting emotional systems.
Amy Edmondson and Google lead the research.
https://rework.withgoogle.com/print/guides/5721312655835136/
18/n
Psychological Safety
Many studies showed psychological safety is the #1 factor for high performance. Performance is an emergent property of interacting emotional systems.
Amy Edmondson and Google lead the research.
https://rework.withgoogle.com/print/guides/5721312655835136/
18/n
#TeamPerformance (2/4)
How did Toyota succeed when GM failed? For one, it was psychologically safe for frontline workers to stop the production line if they found any fault! This was preposterous to the western managers because a stopped line is money wasted.
19/n
How did Toyota succeed when GM failed? For one, it was psychologically safe for frontline workers to stop the production line if they found any fault! This was preposterous to the western managers because a stopped line is money wasted.
19/n
#TeamPerformance (3/4)
Why should frontliners to stop the production?
So that the faults can be inspected and fixed immediately at the source. Reduced delay in feedback!
20/n
Why should frontliners to stop the production?
So that the faults can be inspected and fixed immediately at the source. Reduced delay in feedback!
20/n
#TeamPerformance (4/4)
Another mind bender. High performing team of doctors and nurses were found to have higher error rate! Because it was psychologically safe to report + fix errors and not be hidden.
@AmyCEdmondson 's books are eye openers.
21/n
Another mind bender. High performing team of doctors and nurses were found to have higher error rate! Because it was psychologically safe to report + fix errors and not be hidden.
@AmyCEdmondson 's books are eye openers.
21/n
There are many more examples hidden in plain sight. Confirmation bias?
Google keywords like system archetypes, systems thinking for more info.
On a side note, Twitter can be a good ed-tech product, no?
Google keywords like system archetypes, systems thinking for more info.
On a side note, Twitter can be a good ed-tech product, no?
