Read on Twitter
I was curious if there was any strong correlation between a quarterback having multiple pass-catchers with early-round average draft positions in fantasy drafts versus how that quarterback finished the season. Quickly looked at some data, and here's what I found...
Since 2011, we've seen 60 instances where 2+ pass-catching teammates (WR and TE) were drafted in the top-60. (That 60 is a pure coincidence.) The majority of these instances were with just 2 pass-catchers, but 5 teams had 3 and 1 team (2012 NE) saw 4.
This ADP data is from @MyFantasyLeague, for the record. Shoutout to them.
The average quarterback finish on these teams was QB11. Meaning, of the quarterbacks with multiple pass-catchers being selected in the first five rounds of drafts, they finished as QB11 on average. That seems good!
The problem is, cost is usually baked into this. The average ADP among these quarterbacks was QB7/8. The reality is, 35/60 quarterbacks saw a worse final ranking than ADP, 5 remained neutral, and the rest (20) had a better finish than ADP rank.
There isn't really a strong takeaway for the six teams with 3+ pass-catchers, either. Only one of those QBs actually finished higher than his ADP rank. But it's a small sample and 3 of the 6 instances happened in New England.
This is a pretty basic (and somewhat arbitrary) way of looking at this, but I'm not sure we should use pass-catcher ADP as an argument for or against a quarterback. For a lot of reasons.
Quarterbacks can gain an edge in fantasy with their rushing, which has nothing to do with pass-catchers. But we're also basing this idea off of something that's not *super* predictive, which is ADP.
This thread is probably too long and may not be worthwhile, but I was looking at the data and thought I'd share.
A good follow up. Yeah, you could argue this is where the money is. We've only had 7 instances of a QB ranked 15th or lower with multiple early-round pass-catchers, but 6 of them either met or exceeded ADP. https://twitter.com/amazehayes_/status/1285927918984716288
Maybe a better way to phrase these findings: Late-round quarterbacks with early-round pass-catchers is a good thing. The problem is, we usually don't see instances like that happening very often.
