Read on Twitter
Have been debating it internally for months but now feel pretty comfortable saying Aubameyang shouldn't be extended unless it's part of a complete rebuild and restructure of our attack. I.e. selling Lacazette and bringing in more creators.
Auba has 19 non-penalty goals in the league this season from about 14 xG. Why does this matter? Because across the much larger sample of his entire recent career, Aubameyang has shown that he's roughly an xG = G finisher. This season is very much the exception.
With this in mind his xG is a much better predictor of his future output than his actual goals are. So factoring in age & the fact he's played nearly every minute this season, if the circumstances he plays in don't change it's reasonable to expect around 12-15 goals next season.
The circumstances he plays in being the position/role he plays in and the teammates he has around him. Those are the only factors that could change and make me confident he hits more than 15 NPG in the PL next season.
Which is why I mention the restructuring of the attack. I have no desire to see us pay him £250k+ a week for another 2-3 years just to see him continue to age in a broken attack that realistically needs an extra 20 goals a season to properly challenge for top four.
It's also worth noting that there's a lot more "evidence" that he's declining than there was with Özil when he extended, who was statistically having his second best creative season at Arsenal in 17/18. And look at what a burden that Özil contract is on the club now.
