The rapid escalation in US-China tensions is real and concerning and comes, as with all things Trump, the question: what is the end game?

To be clear, China is guilty of malign activities around the globe incl stealing IP, jailing Muslims, stifling dissent, cheating at trade. 1/

2/ The US under both Dem & GOP administrations was slow to address these malign activities, clinging to the hope that engagement would change China. It didn’t, which should have been clear far sooner.

3/ As with other Intl challenges - Russia, North Korea, Turkey - Trump believed he could singlehandedly change reality via his personal relationship with Xi, a hope he still seems to cling to.

But nowhere has that hope translated into concrete change.

4/ In fact, there’s evidence the leaders of all those countries took advantage of Trump’s supreme confidence in himself and advanced their interests further. That is, they played Trump.

What’s happening now with China is uniquely dangerous as China has enormous economic power

5/ Is the escalation now a political strategy to look tough somewhere, anywhere before November? With even Trump admitting a phase two trade deal is likely off the table, what does US hope to achieve beyond punishing Chinese behavior? Is Trump confident China will blink first?

6/ I’m reminded of this line from @TimNaftali in my upcoming book: “The Madman Theory is basically shock-and-awe diplomacy. Bullying may work if it’s a small item for another party but if it’s their very existence, you are asking people to violate an essential proposition.”