The #EUCO budget deal. Win or lose for the Rule of Law? THREAD

1. Opinion is very much divided. Polish Prime Minister Morawiezki was convinced that he and Orban had escaped.

But normally pessimistic law professor @LaurentPech and Commissioner @VeraJurova think differently.

2. Here's what Morawiecki thinks https://twitter.com/notesfrompoland/status/1285585726432776195?s=21

3. And here is Jurova's tweet https://twitter.com/verajourova/status/1285664125964689408?s=21

4. The summit was a dangerous moment for the rule of law. The fissure Italy and Spain hit hard by Covid, and the Netherlands and its "frugal" allies was deep.

5. A failure to supply funds to Italy would have revived Salvini's flagging anti-European populism. With Italians feeling let down, the way could have been open for an Italexit campaign.

6. The Rule of Law being wasn't just a get-out for @MinPres and his allies. Dutch and Swedish voters are genuinely aghast at their taxes paying for homophobic race-baiting administrations in Warsaw and Budapest.

7. But Orban had a huge tactical advantage.

Block conditionality - and get to distribute the money without consequences.

Block the deal - and anti-European feeling in Italy rockets.

8. The EUCO deal moves the fight over the rule of law to a qualified majority voting - importantly, a process without national vetoes.

9. When the conditionality mechanism is developed, Hungary and Poland won't be able to veto it themselves. They will need to find allies.

They have been decisively outmaneouvered.

10. But the battle's not over. The enemies of democracy in Europe will try to weaken the mechanism to strip it of all meaning.

11. And questions remain over whether the Commission has the political will to actually use the mechanism.

12. But overall the moment of maximum danger has passed. The battle continues, but on less favourable territory for Europe's elected autocrats. ENDS