Read on Twitter
1/ I think $TSLAQ consensus is minimum profitability that is “non-operational” - ie due to accounting gimmicks like forex, burst sales of reg credits.
Let us talk about what calls (strike/date).
For me I am considering buying Friday ATM calls at the close. But some doubts: https://twitter.com/bradmunchen/status/1285870684602724352
Let us talk about what calls (strike/date).
For me I am considering buying Friday ATM calls at the close. But some doubts: https://twitter.com/bradmunchen/status/1285870684602724352
2/ The most significant objection to $TSLAQ consensus above is Q2 2019 results: 95k deliveries, GAAP net loss of 408. Q2 2020 saw 90k deliveries from two factories operating under capacity.
So from a rational point of view, it's hard to see how this quarter will be positive.
So from a rational point of view, it's hard to see how this quarter will be positive.
3/ Not only that but also... ASPs saw a decline YoY - again from the Q2 2019 letter, it seems as if that last year the mix was better in terms of higher pricing.
So I'm just failing to see how honest accounting would make them GAAP profitable.
So I'm just failing to see how honest accounting would make them GAAP profitable.
4/ Let's also check Bloomberg Dollar Index, to roughly see how FX played out this year as opposed to last year.
As an average plebe, I can't quite set the dates but the general BBDXY spot index doesn't show there is much room for FX games.
As an average plebe, I can't quite set the dates but the general BBDXY spot index doesn't show there is much room for FX games.
5/ Another argument for the $TSLAQ consensus is that Musk cut everyone's bonuses this quarter. That itself may be enough to push the company into profitability.
Some of last year's Q2 expenses were: ~$323m was in R&D, ~$647m in SG&A and ~$117M in Restructuring and "Other".
Some of last year's Q2 expenses were: ~$323m was in R&D, ~$647m in SG&A and ~$117M in Restructuring and "Other".
6/ Assuming this year we get an extra $~100M from "Structuring and Other" and another extra ~$100M from denying everyone their bonuses.
That's ~$200M which could push the company into one-time profitability.
That's ~$200M which could push the company into one-time profitability.
7/ Of course, another question is Musk's bonus. How will that be accounted for? Will the market care about numbers excluding Musk's bonus or including Musk's bonus?
I really don't know.
I really don't know.
8/ Another argument against $TSLAQ consensus is that the stonk is too damn high. Even If we get bullshit profitability, at these levels the stonk might just sell off anyway.
9/ I'm also attaching @EconomicManBlog's tweet below, which shows his email about $TSLA's this quarter. https://twitter.com/EconomicManBlog/status/1285121415931408385?s=20
