1) It’s one of the paradoxes of the #pandemic in Quebec at this point: Montreal posted 92 new #COVID cases Tuesday, the highest total in six weeks. Yet despite this rise, rates of hospitalizations and deaths are falling. In this thread, I will consider the possible implications.

2) First, cities across Canada are now observing spikes in #COVID cases, driving largely by the 20-to-29 age group. The number of active cases in Toronto has climbed to more than 500 from 85 less than three weeks ago. Unfortunately, Montreal does not make public comparable stats.

3) As the chart below shows, Montreal has not declared any #COVID deaths in three days. This is perhaps the best news to date in the #pandemic. The plunging mortality rate is occurring because Montreal’s eldercare homes have also not recorded new cases in days.

4) Hospitalizations across Quebec have dropped from the daily record set on May 12 of 1,866. On Monday, the number stood at 247. Most hospitals are also no longer struggling with #COVID outbreaks, and have ramped up elective surgeries and other medical procedures.

5) Yet the #coronavirus has caused outbreaks in at least three city bars. To gain some perspective, I spoke today with Dr. Karl Weiss, Quebec’s foremost expert on infectious diseases, who works at the Jewish General Hospital. Despite the drop in hospitalizations, he is worried.

6) Weiss drew parallels between the uptick in cases in Montreal, and the massive resurgence in the United States. Mostly younger adults gathering in large groups and going to bars are largely responsible for the #COVID increases in both countries, Weiss noted.

7) Despite masks now compulsory in indoor public spaces in Quebec, Weiss is concerned that younger Montrealers are not wearing them or respecting #PhysicalDistancing. If the trend continues, some asymptomatic Montrealers will soon infect their parents and grandparents, he warned.

8) In a few weeks’ time, Weiss foresees Montreal possibly reporting an uptick in hospitalizations, mostly among older Quebecers, but some young adults, too. Soon after, the death rate could start to go back up, too — a scenario no one wants before schools reopen in September.

9) The chart below reveals that all of Montreal’s health districts are observing new cases, with the Plateau Mont-Royal still the epicenter of the metropolis’s resurgence. Meanwhile, the city’s bars appear to have seeded at least one small #COVID outbreak off the island.

10) La Nouvelle Union reported today that a visit to a Montreal bar is the likely cause of a trio of new #COVID cases in Victoriaville. Once again, I’m baffled that even though at least 65 people contracted the #pandemic illness in city bars, authorities are keeping them open.

11) Weiss doesn’t think Montreal is in its second wave even though the city is witnessing a rebound in #COVID cases. But he does expect there to be one and predicts it won’t be anything like the first wave. That should jolt anyone out of a false sense of security. End of thread.