Notwithstanding my inability to compete with @KoriSchake @ratemyskyperoom domination, I enjoyed today’s debate. A few thoughts re my argument below: 1/x https://twitter.com/ACEurasia/status/1284958442558455808

NATO’s quest for relevancy & never ending adaptation is a double edged sword. Chasing the relevancy rabbit has helped get us to where we are today, i.e. an alliance whose members can’t agree on its strategic purpose (aka strategic “brain death” cc @EmmanuelMacron). 2/x

When asking “Is NATO relevant?” we have to start by asking ourselves “relevant to whom?” (and for what purpose?) A club whose members can’t agree on the purpose of the club and who each want/expect different things from the club, is a club that is in trouble. 3/x

BLUF: NATO is in danger of losing its collective relevancy b/c of its strategic deficit. 4/x

NATO’s post-Cold War transformations have led to #missioncreep. Open Door enlargement and the addition of new mandates, i.e. projecting stability, crisis mngmt, cooperative security, etc. has led to massive expansion of responsibilities + tasks 5/x

e.g., peacekeeping, nation building, counter terrorism, SSR, counter piracy, fighting illegal migration, etc. Calls for NATO to tackle more + more, including org. crime + corruption, infectious diseases… 6/x

Members want/expect different things from NATO. See, for example, different national strategies re: Russia. Moreover, there’s no way to adapt your way out of this problem; adaptation is not a strategy. Sound strategy req difficult choices, prioritization 7/x

Before embarking on more adaptation, members should answer + agree on Q: what is NATO’s purpose today? Some want a military alliance; others a political organization. Answers may require fundamental changes to NATO, see @Shifrinson https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/0163660X.2017.1302742 8/x

The problem (i.e. NATO’s strategic deficit) predates Trump. So dont expect a “return to normal” come Jan 2021, even w/ a new occupant at 1600 Penn. BLUF: Lack of consensus about NATO's strategic purpose today/ #nato2030 jeopardizes its future relevancy, for all members. #end