Thread by @jonboybeats, Let’s take a look at NFL Team Red Zone Scoring %...TDs OnlyHere [...]

Let’s take a look at NFL Team Red Zone Scoring %...TDs Only

Here is how 2019 ended up (TD/game rank)

1. TEN 77.4% (5)
2. GB 67.9% (12)
3. TB 64.8% (4)
4. BAL 64.7% (1)
5. SEA 64.6% (8)

28. DEN 47.6% (32)
29. ARI 45.3% (18)
30. CIN 43.8% (31)
31. JAX 40.4% (28)
32. PIT 35% (29)

Historically, RZ % has been an indicator of upcoming offensive regression. Also, as you can imagine, RZ% is pretty sticky to TDs/game for offenses. When we are targeting offenses in fantasy, we want teams that will score TDs, plain and simple. Here’s the last 5 years of data

2018 RZ% (TD/Gm)

2019 Ranks

1. PIT (4)

32nd (29)

2. KC (1)

11th (2)
3. CIN (13)

30th (31)

4. NO (2)

13th (6)
5. IND (7)

7th (16)

28. NYG (20)

17th (14)

29. HOU (17)

9th (10)

30. NYJ (27)

21st (26)
31. JAX (32)

31st (28)
32. SF (25)

20th (3)

2017 RZ% (TD/Gm)

2018 Ranks

1. JAX (5)

31st (32)

2. PHI (1)

17th (19)

3. NE (3)

12th (5)
4. GB (15)

14th (16)

5. NO (2)

4th (2)

28. LAC (8)

8th (8)

29. KC (10)

2nd (1)

30. ARI (29)

9th (31)
31. IND (32)

5th (7)

32. DEN (27)

18th (21)

2016 RZ% (TD/Gm)

2017 Ranks

1. TEN (11)

14th (22)

2. SF (21)

27th (25)

3. NO (2)

5th (2)
4. IND (9)

31st (32)

5. DAL (7)

7th (11)

28. DEN (23)

32nd (27)
29. MIN (20)

13th (14)

30. WAS (14)

16th (17)
31. HOU (31)

20th (13)

32. NYJ (30)

15th (23)

2015 RZ% (TD/Gm)

2016 Ranks

1. CAR (1)

12th (17)

2. DET (16)

17th (26)

3. NYJ (12)

32nd (30)

4. NE (4)

10th (3)
5. TEN (22)

1st (11)

28. DEN (24)

28th (23)
29. NYG (7)

22nd (24)
30. DAL (31)

5th (7)

31. SF (32)

2nd (21)
32. CLE (30)

15th (29)

2014 RZ% (TD/Gm)

2015 Ranks

1. OAK (30)

8th (15)
2. DAL (3)

30th (31)

3. CHI (15)

25th (27)

4. DEN (2)

28th (24)

5. NE (1)

4th (4)

28. ARI (26)

10th (2)

29. SF (25)

31st (32)
30. BUF (23)

24th (9)
31. JAX (32)

19th (11)
32. NYJ (31)

3rd (12)

Some takeaways...

Drew Brees and Sean Payton are a Hall of Fame Offensive duo

Tom Brady is the

Mahomes is on a

trajectory

If we take away these three obvious players/teams from the data...here’s what some of the REAL trends are

Teams in the Top 5 of RZ% (since 2014)

2 Teams - 11% - stayed elite (Top 8) the next season & improved TD/game

7 Teams - 27.8% - regressed to the mean (league avg) in both categories

9 Teams - 50% - became flat out bad (Btm 8) in BOTH CATEGORIES the next season

Teams in the Bottom 5 of RZ% (since 2014)

4 Teams - 16% - stayed bad (Btm 8) the next season in both categories

13 Teams - 52% - regressed to the mean (league avg) in both

8 Teams - 32% - became ELITE (Top 8) the next season (with 6 of them finishing Top 8 in TD/gm too)

2020 Takeaways

78% chance that TEN, GB, BAL, SEA, or TB negatively regress towards league avg in both RZ% and TD/Gm (50/50 they finish Btm 8)

84% chance that DEN, ARI, CIN, JAX, PIT positively regress towards league avg in both (32% they become Elite)

#showmethedata

@LordReebs @Chad_Scott13 I decided to dig into RZ% after listening to your podcast this morning. Seems to be a definite stat that can predict upcoming regression! Took a lot away from your discussion and I’m excited to keep diving into this kind of stuff

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