I wanted to share information from our epidemiologist
First, we are in the beginning of this epidemic’s trajectory. That means even with these distancing measures we will see cases and deaths continue to rise globally, nationally, and in our own communities in the coming weeks.

This may lead some people to think that the social distancing measures are not working. They are. They may feel futile. They aren’t. You will feel discouraged. You should. This is normal in chaos. But this is normal epidemic trajectory. Stay calm.

This enemy that we are facing is very good at what it does; we are not failing. We need everyone to hold the line as the epidemic inevitably gets worse.
Second, although social distancing measures have been (at least temporarily) well-received, there is an obvious-but-overlooked

phenomenon when considering groups (i.e. families) in transmission dynamics. While social distancing decreases contact with members of society, it typically increases your contacts with family members / very close friends. This small and obvious fact has surprisingly

profound implications on disease transmission dynamics. Study after study demonstrates that even if there is only a little bit of connection between groups (i.e. social dinners, play dates/playgrounds, etc.), the epidemic isn’t much different than if there was no measure in place

You should perceive your entire family to function as a single individual unit; if one person puts themselves at risk, everyone in the unit is at risk. Seemingly small social chains get large and complex with alarming geometric speed. If your son visits his girlfriend, and you

later sneak over for coffee with a neighbor, your neighbor is now connected to the infected office worker that your son’s girlfriend’s mother shook hands with. This sounds silly, it’s not. This is not a joke or a hypothetical. We as epidemiologists see it borne out in the data

time & time again & no one listens. Conversely, any break in that chain breaks disease transmission along that whole chain. In contrast to hand-washing and other personal measures, social distancing measures are not about individuals, they are about societies working in unison.

You can’t cheat it. People are already itching to cheat on the social distancing precautions just a “little”- a play date, a haircut, or picking up a needless item at the store, etc. From a transmission dynamics standpoint, this very quickly recreates

a highly connected social network that undermines all of the work the community has done so far.
Until we get a viable vaccine this unprecedented outbreak will not be overcome in one grand, sweeping gesture, rather only by the collection of individual choices our community makes

in the coming months. This virus is unforgiving to choices outside the rules.
My goal in writing this is to prevent communities from getting ‘sucker-punched’ by what the epidemiological community knows will happen in the coming weeks.

By Jonathan Smith, a lecturer in #Epidemiology of #MicrobialDiseases and #GlobalHealth at Yale University School of #PublicHealth. His research focuses on infectious disease transmission dynamics #COVID19 (thread above)