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$TSLA Q2 Earnings – 5 things I’m Expecting
Ahead of Wednesday’s earnings release and call, I wanted to share some of the things I think we'll learn, and what I’ll be looking at most closely.
Ahead of Wednesday’s earnings release and call, I wanted to share some of the things I think we'll learn, and what I’ll be looking at most closely.
#1 GAAP Net Income of $60M+.
The most important number this Q by a mile is GAAP Net Income. If it is positive as I expect the stock should adjust upwards as S&P 500 is almost guaranteed. If it is negative there could be a substantial downward movement. https://twitter.com/MatchasmMatt/status/1280518446674071560
The most important number this Q by a mile is GAAP Net Income. If it is positive as I expect the stock should adjust upwards as S&P 500 is almost guaranteed. If it is negative there could be a substantial downward movement. https://twitter.com/MatchasmMatt/status/1280518446674071560
#2 Best-Ever Automotive Gross Margin of ~27%
$120M+ recognition of deferred FSD revenue, plus stellar margins on the MY and MIC M3 will drive outstanding margins this Q. Margins ex-credits of 23.5% will kill the notion that Tesla is only profitable from regulatory credits.
$120M+ recognition of deferred FSD revenue, plus stellar margins on the MY and MIC M3 will drive outstanding margins this Q. Margins ex-credits of 23.5% will kill the notion that Tesla is only profitable from regulatory credits.
#3 1M Unit Capacity Coming Soon
Updates to time frame of MY production in Berlin and Shanghai, as well as general capacity and progress milestone updates. With the pieces we learn, I expect a path to 1M units in 2021 will emerge as an aggressive though viable opportunity.
Updates to time frame of MY production in Berlin and Shanghai, as well as general capacity and progress milestone updates. With the pieces we learn, I expect a path to 1M units in 2021 will emerge as an aggressive though viable opportunity.
#4 Gigafactory Austin
Tesla will announce that Austin has been selected as the site of the next Gigafactory. I believe the first vehicles will roll off the line in 11 months, but I expect the public message will be a more conservative “by late '21”. https://twitter.com/MatchasmMatt/status/1282657935391436800
Tesla will announce that Austin has been selected as the site of the next Gigafactory. I believe the first vehicles will roll off the line in 11 months, but I expect the public message will be a more conservative “by late '21”. https://twitter.com/MatchasmMatt/status/1282657935391436800
#5 Significant Cash Flow and CAPEX
Tesla is incredibly efficient with it’s CAPEX, keeping under ~$500M per quarter even while massively increasing output. I expect the benefits of historical CAPEX will show up, with ~$2B in Operating Cash Flow...
Tesla is incredibly efficient with it’s CAPEX, keeping under ~$500M per quarter even while massively increasing output. I expect the benefits of historical CAPEX will show up, with ~$2B in Operating Cash Flow...
but a big increase in CAPEX of $1B to further accelerate capital expansion. The fact that $TSLA can roughly self-fund this kind of expansion is...
Of course I could be wrong on any or all of these predictions, and it is not investment advice. But for what it's worth, my expectation is that Wall Street will start realizing how strong the financials of this company have become! https://twitter.com/MatchasmMatt/status/1275504414158176256
