Thread by @kvxldez, THREAD ON COVID-19 & BACK-TO-SCHOOL IN UTAH:This information comes from an epidemiologist [...]

THREAD ON COVID-19 & BACK-TO-SCHOOL IN UTAH:

This information comes from an epidemiologist who consults with the state’s COVID-19 response team as well as COVID-19 researchers at Johns Hopkins University. (1/29)

As of last Friday (7/17),
- there were 750 new cases
- accelerating growth over the last 5 weeks
- continued growth in EVERY SINGLE county
- 14 day rolling average is 26 hospitalizations per day (which continues to grow each week by 30-40%) (2/29)

- 11-15 hospitalizations per week in the 19-24 yr. old age group
* 25-45 yr. olds now have similar rates of infection to the 65+ age category
* household and work exposure is highest among 15-24 yr. old age group (3/29)

Without controlling community spread (which we have not been doing), it will be DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE to open any school/college campus safely. (4/29)

As we have been told, a 6 foot distance has become the standard safety recommendation for containing the spread. HOWEVER, this is NOT a magical number that will prevent anyone from becoming infected. (5/29)

What 6 feet means is that the viral loads/droplets (that may cause infections) are more dense on average within that distance. BUT, the droplets may go beyond 6 feet (up to 9-12 feet). (6/29)

As scientists have generally found that the virus likely spreads through the air, people may become infected simply by inhaling droplets of spit released as someone talks or breathes. (7/29)

These droplets/viral particles may remain in the air from minutes to hours (indoor). Therefore, if teachers & students are sharing the same air in a classroom with 10-20 people for an hour or more, 6 feet distancing is NOT an effective means of containing the viral spread, (8/29)

especially if the classroom is not well ventilated.

Further, large droplets, like from a sneeze/cough, contain bigger viral loads & can be spewed onto any surface. Touching those surfaces can infect a person, meaning that 6 foot distancing is also ineffective in this way. (9/29)

COVID-19 outbreaks (on any campus) will begin on the very first day of school. The notion that everyone will be negative on the first day back is extremely unlikely. (10/29)

For example, in a best case scenario: say a college campus has 1500-2000 people on campus and 1% of people are asymptomatic carriers (no symptoms and will not develop symptoms later), pre-symptomatic (has been infected but does not exhibit symptoms yet), (11/29)

or oligosymptomatic (having few or minor symptoms), all three of these being in the infectious stage. Even half of 1% (.005) of say 1500 people will put us at around 8 people who are unknowingly positive, or let’s say 4 if you take .0025%. The current Ro (r-naught) is 1.3 (12/29)

That means that those 4 people have the probability of infecting 1.3 persons most likely by the end of the day in a large group. That takes us to approximately 5 new infections total. Let’s say 2 (a very conservative number) of the newly infected people- (13/29)

spend most of their time on campus on the 2nd day of school. That leads us to 6 infectious cases (2 new+4 initial) on campus by the 2nd/3rd day of school. By the end of the 2nd week, there could be 10-12 confirmed cases (or more), with about 2/3 being infectious- (14/29)

(and so on...) Again, these numbers are BEST CASE SCENARIO. BEST CASE SCENARIO.

When a person is tested for COVID-19, the test results may take anywhere from 3-5 days due to the current surge in cases we are experiencing. (15/29)

Once the test results reach the local health department, they have to them gather information as to where the person was infected. Once information as to who they were in contact with is collected, it is then sent to the contact tracer. (16/29)

If a person were tested based on symptom manifestation, here is a hypothetical timeline from test to quarantine:

- Person infected on August 19th
- Pre-symptomatic on August 22 or 23 (begin infectious stage)
- Symptomatic on August 24 or 25
- Tested on August 25 or 26 (17/29)

- Results sent to local Health Dept. on Aug 28 or 29
- Intake performed on Aug 29 or 30 (person is finally quarantined)
- Then sent to contact tracer on Aug 30 or 31 (to contact those who were exposed to the infected person)
- Contact tracing* begins on Aug 31 or Sept 1 (18/29)

*Contact tracing looks for any individual within 6 feet of an infectious person for at least 15 min. (19/29)

Here is the challenge:
The person who tested positive will not be quarantined (unless they do so themselves) by the county until 3-4 days after testing. (20/29)

That means the person was infectious/contagious from August 22 or 23 to August 29 or 30 (6 TO 7 DAYS) before being asked to quarantine. Those who came into contact with that person will not be quarantined until Sept. 1, assuming they can be reached. (21/29)

Again, this scenario is BEST CASE. Due to the current surge in cases, the testing/intake process has been taking longer—up to 6 DAYS in some cases. So, even if we were “on it quickly” when it comes to dealing with cases on our campuses, this does not mean much. (22/29)

In the VERY BEST CASE scenario, the testing to intake period might take 2 days (which, with the current surge in cases would be near impossible). Even then, in the VERY BEST CASE scenario, the person would be infectious for 4-5 DAYS before being asked to quarantine. (23/29)

———
Here are my own thoughts upon reflection:

In light of this information, Utah students, parents, teachers, and administrators have to seriously consider the ramifications of decisions currently being made about how our education system is going to look this Fall. (24/29)

This thing is not even *close* to being over. In fact, it is much, MUCH worse than it was when we all went into lockdown back in March. My question is: why do we find it acceptable to come back to in-person instruction now? (25/29)

Additionally, we know that this virus has disproportionate effects both for at-risk/immunocompromised people as well as low-income/BIPOC communities. (26/29)

How do we justify putting these communities in danger of losing their lives and livelihoods over a problem that we could find safer and better solutions to? (27/29)

Please: self-reflect. Why would you advocate for any form of in-person instruction at a time like this? (28/29)

Then, ask yourself, is that reason, whatever it is, *really* worth jeopardizing the lives, health, and financial well-being of hundreds to thousands of students, instructors, and their friends, families, and loved ones—in particular those who are members of marginalized groups?

If you made it this far, thank you for reading & please share

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