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this is an important issue to internalize:
so much defense and resistance to COV-19 is based in t-cells, that sero-prevalence of antibodies can be a very misleading figure.
in this german study, only 52% of PCR confirmed COV cases had antibodies @ 6wks
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154112v1.full.pdf
so much defense and resistance to COV-19 is based in t-cells, that sero-prevalence of antibodies can be a very misleading figure.
in this german study, only 52% of PCR confirmed COV cases had antibodies @ 6wks
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154112v1.full.pdf
and this was a thorough test
they ran 6 different IgG immunoassays. had it been just one (as is typical) this could have been considerably lower
so it's very possible that many antibody studies are under-counting prevalence by 50% or more. could easily be 75%+
no way to know
they ran 6 different IgG immunoassays. had it been just one (as is typical) this could have been considerably lower
so it's very possible that many antibody studies are under-counting prevalence by 50% or more. could easily be 75%+
no way to know
this is why IgG tests are not generally used to assess disease prevalence. they're just not that meaningful and can vary in unpredictable ways.
so "only 6% of people have antibodies" is just not that meaningful. that could be 6% disease prevalence or 24% or 40%.
so "only 6% of people have antibodies" is just not that meaningful. that could be 6% disease prevalence or 24% or 40%.
but keep in mind that this also does NOT mean there is no resistance.
SARS-1 has strong, specific t-cell mediated resistance 17 years later (and this is cross resistant to covid-19) https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1284134457348362240?s=20
SARS-1 has strong, specific t-cell mediated resistance 17 years later (and this is cross resistant to covid-19) https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1284134457348362240?s=20
herd immunity looks to be 10-30% (depending on location) not the 60-70% those who assumed no cross resistant immunity were originally postulating (and a base assumption of the HIT= 1-(1/r0) equation. https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1259552285102727168?s=20
a lot of bad, messy data and assumptions are being made to drive a lot of bad, messy policy here.
so keep the limits of what you're looking at in mind.
it's keep you from being misled.
so keep the limits of what you're looking at in mind.
it's keep you from being misled.
