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$BTC price continues to move sideways.
Had some time today to build a script to check how frequent these sideway periods are and what usually happens afterwards.
Take these with a grain of salt. But here you go...
TLDR; Good luck trying to time the market
Had some time today to build a script to check how frequent these sideway periods are and what usually happens afterwards.
Take these with a grain of salt. But here you go...
TLDR; Good luck trying to time the market
There are several ways to define a sideways market. My calculation is simple.
I used intervals of 20 days, got the high and the low of this period and checked the percentage difference between them. Code below.
Full code is available in a Jupyter notebook at end of thread.
I used intervals of 20 days, got the high and the low of this period and checked the percentage difference between them. Code below.
Full code is available in a Jupyter notebook at end of thread.
The latest 20 day stats for example are:
Last Range = 5.99%
High = 9471.65
Low = 8935.9
Last = 9198.56
5.99% is low. How low?
99% of the times (since 2010) prices are more disperse than this.
Last Range = 5.99%
High = 9471.65
Low = 8935.9
Last = 9198.56
5.99% is low. How low?
99% of the times (since 2010) prices are more disperse than this.
In fact, it seems like we are close to a new low
The periods of lower dispersion are highlighted below.
But what happened after these periods?
Let's look at 10, 30, 90, 365 days after these periods:
Let's look at 10, 30, 90, 365 days after these periods:
It seems that on average, the low dispersion periods lead to very positive returns. In some cases, the rallies were massive - like in 2016 returning +63%.
There seem to be 2 exceptions:
. July, 2014
. November, 2018
10 day return chart below for these periods
There seem to be 2 exceptions:
. July, 2014
. November, 2018
10 day return chart below for these periods
30 and 90 day return charts
Summary results
This reinforces my thesis that timing $BTC is a losing game. Do it at your own risk. Feel free to play / download / modify the script at the page below. You can change the time periods easily.
https://github.com/pxsocs/btc_calm_storm/blob/master/Bitcoin%20Price%20Analysis.ipynb
https://github.com/pxsocs/btc_calm_storm/blob/master/Bitcoin%20Price%20Analysis.ipynb
Using volatility instead of high / low dispersion https://twitter.com/alphaazeta/status/1284792022365286400?s=20
