I've compared Europe today vs last week by 14-day incidences. It gives a rough snapshot of which direction infection is going for countries in the EU/EEA.

The general trend is *depressing*.

Also, treating the UK as one entity for our Green List has a farcical feel to it:

14-day incidence of new cases, per 100,00 in EU/EEA:

July 11th:

Luxembourg - 98.4
Sweden - 95.4
Portugal - 46.8
Bulgaria - 30.8
Romania - 29.3
Croatia - 24.4
Czechia - 19.0
Iceland -15.1
Austria - 13.4
Belgium - 11.9
UK - 11.8
France - 11.7
Spain - 11.6

Slovenia - 11.3
Poland - 10.1
Germany - 6.4
Liechtenstein - 5.2
Denmark - 4.7
Netherlands - 4.5
Italy- 4.4
Slovakia - 4.2
Greece - 3.6
Ireland - 3.6
Norway - 2.8
Cyprus - 2.4
Latvia - 2.2
Estonia - 2.0
Lithuania - 1.9
Finland - 1.6
Hungary - 1.0
Malta - 0.8

14-day incidence of new cases, per 100,00 in EU/EEA:

July 18th:

Luxembourg - 136.5
Sweden - 57.3
Portugal - 47.9
Bulgaria - 42.1
Romania - 39.3
Croatia - 27.7
Spain - 20.7
Iceland - 17.1
Austria - 15.0
Belgium - 14.5
Czechia - 13.4
UK - 13.4
Slovenia - 12.8

France - 11.5
Poland - 10.5
Germany - 6.4
Denmark - 5.9
Netherlands - 5.6
Liechtenstein - 5.2
Ireland - 4.7
Italy- 4.6
Slovakia - 4.5
Greece - 4.5
Cyprus - 3.7
Latvia - 3.3
Lithuania - 2.9
Norway - 2.3
Estonia - 2.2
Hungary - 1.2
Malta - 0.8
Finland - 0.6

Change +/- per 100,000:

Luxembourg +38.1
Bulgaria +11.3
Romania +10.0
Spain +9.1
Croatia +3.3
Belgium +2.6
Iceland +2.0
Austria +1.6
UK +1.5
Slovenia +1.5
Cyprus +1.3
Denmark +1.2
Netherlands +1.1
Portugal +1.1
Latvia +1.1
Ireland +1.1
Lithuania +1.0
Greece +0.9
Poland +0.4

Slovakia +0.3
Hungary +0.2
Germany +/-0.0 (no change)
Malta +/- 0.0
Liechtenstein +/- 0.0
France -0.2
Norway -0.5
Finland -1.0
Czechia -5.6
Sweden -38.1

Well done to Sweden and Czechia for those inroads anyway, they're at least heading in a good direction.

EU/EEA average July 11th: 15.8 per 100,000
EU/EEA average July 18th: 17.7 per 100,000

The EU Safe List to get into Europe is 16.0 per 100,000, so as of right now today, Europe would not allow Europe to get into Europe if we weren't already in Europe

Analyzing it like this is just a snapshot. These numbers change day-by-day because they measure the previous 14-days.

If Ireland reported 1 case tomorrow, we'd fall back down below 4.0. If we reported 60 cases tomorrow, we'd jump above 5.0.

They're dynamic numbers.

In terms of Green List, UK are on thin ice.

I thought they'd scrape on to the list but England are still dragging them down.

UK's 13.4 per 100,000 is not a brilliant argument, when Ireland are down nearer 4.0 per 100,000, but when you look closer...

There's seems no justification for treating UK as one entity to get England on.

UK had 687 cases yesterday:

England: 635
NI: 19
Scotland: 17
Wales: 16

Even when you break that down into per 100,000 population, it's still as bad as it looks:

14-day-incidence:

England: 15.1 per 100,000
Wales: 7.9 per 100,000
Scotland: 2.3 per 100,000

I don't see the logic behind treating Scotland and Wales, who are doing very well, the same as England, who are not.

Glasgow = London also seems very weak logic to me.

Anyway, trend in Europe is "worsening".

We're so far below EU average in Ireland, we'd have to make a complete bollox of this situation to get back to that level but big house parties are a good way of trying.

I repeat myself on house parties because don't have them, thanks