What has happened to give presumably smart people the confidence to tweet an opinion on School Reopening without a proper analysis

Let's review what it would take to even HAVE a strong opinion. [THREAD]

First, school reopening is at least 6 linked Qs

Second, before you even have an opinion, you should read or perform an evidence review on at least these topics (probably more)

These reviews are likely to be massive.

Probably 1000-2000 pages in total (just a guess from doing such work)

Third, you would want to convene a panel of experts with expertise in AT LEAST these domains

More domains is probably better

Fourth, you would want them to draft several versions

An 'err on the side of in person' version

An 'err on the side of virtual' version

Many others

Then to foster a debate on the pros and cons of each

Moreover, how can we make these tradeoffs empirical

Fifth, then you would want to poll the values and preferences of the COMMUNITIES you serve

Sixth, then you would want to consider all of that in your decision

Seventh, whenever possible (and it is), you would want to construct natural experiments/ RCTs on the margin to test your strategies/ stopping rules

Eighth, you would want to remove this process from the utter disaster that is politics

Ninth, if you want anyone else to trust you are not a nakedly political actor you would do all this before tweeting your opinion.

I discuss this in the middle of this episode https://soundcloud.com/plenarysession/ep303

I am less concerned that politicians who know nothing have decided to polarize this decision

I am MOST concerned that members of the academy-- of higher education-- of universities-- of academic medical center cannot help but embroil themselves in a debate

Without doing the hard work to resolve the question

A commitment to what is best for a generation of kids and society.

Very disappointing behavior.

Cheers!