Early thoughts on the events unfolding in the Portland area.

The activities aren't shocking, but the risk of brinksmanship is very real when ego and idealogy are involved.

Thread =>

The news is mentioning federal police, and much of this involves a Federal tactical unit called BORTAC. This is the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Agency's "SWAT team".

It's analogous to a CBP version of the FBI's Hostage Rescue Team, or Army SFOD-D, or Navy DEVGRU.

Many armed federal agencies have tactical teams, and these teams can be employed in domestic operations to quell unrest.

Whether or not you agree with this, it's a "legit" function of the agencies. What's happening isn't really NEW, it's just rarely seen.

The use of unmarked and/or rental vehicles is common. Even local police agencies make routine use of rental vehicles.

Are BORTAC's activities this legal? Most likely. Especially with interagency cooperation / an invite.

BORTAC doesn't have any real limits on jurisdiction. Depending on circumstances, BORTAC could legally kick in a door in Afghanistan as easily as a door in Cleveland, Ohio.

It may alarm you to learn how active domestic law enforcement agencies are overseas in armed conflict.

I'd encourage you to Google "FBI HRT Iraq" or "FBI HRT Afghanistan".

To many people, the concept of a "militarized police" means the dress, appearance, and equipment of officers. Local cops with machine guns and armored vehicles. That type of thing. But that's only a small part of it.

In reality, a militarized police force means law enforcement that serves in both an offensive military capacity and also a domestic enforcement capacity.

The line between soldier and cop is very blurred at this point.

LE and the Military at this point share equipment, capability, and intelligence.

And the members of domestic tactical units are heavily drawn from former members of premier combat arms units of the military to begin with.

In Portland, these guys are intimidating. They look scary, and their activities are not subject to much scrutiny at all.

And with ANTIFA being designated as a terrorist organization, a lot of the "rules" for cops are thrown out the window.

What it comes down to for ANTIFA is this: f*ck with the bull, and you'll eventually get the horns.

Everyone's a revolutionary until the Chrystler Pacifica rolls up and the dudes with SBR's and OCP Crye's hop out.

BORTAC and similar teams are entirely capable of monitoring the communications of everyone in the battlespace and actioning against specific actors or targets of opportunity.

BORTAC can operate 24/7 with total visibility of 'enemy' communications, activities, movements, and present locations. Scooping people in the minivan is only a very small part of the game.

ANTIFA will not overcome this kind of adversary. These are bookworm gutter punks and commie types combating veterans at urban warfare who hold a massive advantage in terms of capability and organization.

ANTIFA is the butt of the joke, but the REAL conflict is much deeper. It's a matter of consent of the governed.

We're seeing Pelosi call American law enforcement officers "stormtroopers", who are "kidnapping" people. That's significant.

More importantly, state leaders and local leaders are opposed to the use of federal law enforcement agents in this capacity.

Oregon Governor Kate Brown and Portland Mayor Ted Wheeler have both either criticized POTUS's use of such agents or called for their removal entirely.

Everyone talks about a "civil war" being imminent, but I've been skeptical.

A civil war in the U.S. is unlikely to be started by ANTIFA, BoogBois, BLM, or any other such group.

But when government systems of control are at odds with each other?

All bets are off.

In our system, states generally have a right to govern states as they see fit, and cities generally have a right to govern cities as they see fit.

If the city of Portland and the state of Oregon tells BORTAC to "go away", where does that lead?

Don't forget that while the American people are more polarized than ever, so is the American political class. And while the average citizen can't mobilize armed personnel, many politicians CAN.

And there's more money involved and more ego too. The stakes are higher.

And so we find ourselves rapidly approaching a Catch-22.

If BORTAC stays, then we're an authoritarian global empire with no states rights and no choice in how we're governed.

If BORTAC is pressured out, then the executive is a paper tiger and the entire playbook is re-written.

If neither side can agree, well, crack a history book.