Reasons why three gorges dam is highly unlikely an issue.

1. spillway capacity: 80,000 cubic meter/s. inflow has been 32,000-40,000 cubic meter/s lately

2. normal peak water level is 175m, and current water level is only 157m.

Wuhan can get flooded, but that's hurricane sandy-level of problem for China, IMO.

How three gorges dam (TGD) works in a typical year?

Precipitation in Yangtze river watershed above TGD is very seasonal (see the chart for Chongqing (upstream)), so TGD loads up water (for power generation + navigation) in Sept-Oct in anticipation for the dry winter season.

Note that the water level in the winter is way above rainy season level --> structural load to the dam is highest during winter --> most likely time to have dam failure, if structural deficiency existed.

Chinese operates TGD in the summer to flatten the flash flood upstream, so that it gets released to downstream areas with less peak flow, but over longer period of time. Esp in July, when Wuhan gets peak precipitation.

that's why realized vol for water levels is highest in july

As long as water level is <175m, TGD will function like the capacitor in a RC circuit, or a low-pass filter if you will.

At and above 175m, TGD will dump all water inflow downstream for safety reasons.

Rainy season is ending in a week for Wuhan, so I am not too worried.

People asked about Typhoon season, which is a problem only for coastal cities like Shanghai. Typhoons rarely venture that deep inland.

TGD is almost as far from the ocean as Missouri. when did St. Louis get hit by hurricane last time?

You don't see a Typhoon-induced precipitation peak in Nanjing, Wuhan, or Chongqing (a proxy for areas upstream from TGD)

Extraordinary claims need to be corroborated with extraordinary evidence. I am open to good evidence/data, but what I see lately is mostly sensationalization and political shouting matches.

Last post on this issue, unless genuinely new evidence emerges.