Read on Twitter
1/n
Chatting with ppl in Hungary; although Covid itself seems to be well under control, I get the impression that economically it is beginning to bite quite severely.
Chatting with ppl in Hungary; although Covid itself seems to be well under control, I get the impression that economically it is beginning to bite quite severely.
2/n
A good number of „friends‘ friends“ have lost their jobs recently; these include e.g. ppl working for Hungarian auto suppliers, living off Audi, Opel and others.
A good number of „friends‘ friends“ have lost their jobs recently; these include e.g. ppl working for Hungarian auto suppliers, living off Audi, Opel and others.
3/n
However there also cases in other industries where the employer was only mildly impacted by Covid but is in all-out cost-cut mode; think „team of 3 will be reduced to 2, deal with it“
However there also cases in other industries where the employer was only mildly impacted by Covid but is in all-out cost-cut mode; think „team of 3 will be reduced to 2, deal with it“
4/n
Furthermore there are ppl who get the majority, or all of there salary informally; many of such grey/black employed have apparently lost their jobs too. Most are unlikely to appear in the statistics.
Furthermore there are ppl who get the majority, or all of there salary informally; many of such grey/black employed have apparently lost their jobs too. Most are unlikely to appear in the statistics.
5/n
The general feeling is apparently that Orban‘s government has not provided much help to cushion all this.
The general feeling is apparently that Orban‘s government has not provided much help to cushion all this.
6/n
I continue to think Orban made a mistake in the beginning of the pandemic, concentrating for ~2 months only on the 3% budget deficit ceiling even when it became obvious that the game has become a complete different one for all members states.
I continue to think Orban made a mistake in the beginning of the pandemic, concentrating for ~2 months only on the 3% budget deficit ceiling even when it became obvious that the game has become a complete different one for all members states.
7/n
This monomaniac concentration on the 3% stems, of course, from the fact that the breach of it is one of the few avenues that create leverage for the European Commission over a member state;
This monomaniac concentration on the 3% stems, of course, from the fact that the breach of it is one of the few avenues that create leverage for the European Commission over a member state;
8/n
and a central pillar of Orban‘s system is him being completely sovereign within the borders of Hungary (including the 100% freedom to distribute EU-money in Hungary at his personal discretion).
and a central pillar of Orban‘s system is him being completely sovereign within the borders of Hungary (including the 100% freedom to distribute EU-money in Hungary at his personal discretion).
9/n
Anyway, even when he switched and belatedly presented a stimulus package of sorts, the focus
was on its internal marketing through the propaganda machinery as one of the largest in Europe, while experts confirmed it‘s in fact rather meager.
Anyway, even when he switched and belatedly presented a stimulus package of sorts, the focus
was on its internal marketing through the propaganda machinery as one of the largest in Europe, while experts confirmed it‘s in fact rather meager.
10/n
That was either a mistake, or reflects a great belief it the propaganda‘s ability to deflect the blame for the hardship that is now closing in on the country.
That was either a mistake, or reflects a great belief it the propaganda‘s ability to deflect the blame for the hardship that is now closing in on the country.
11/n
Undoubtedly, that fearsome machine will run full steam to put the blame on everyone but Orban; big question is how far it gets them.
Some friends are hopeful that the events open the electorates’s eyes and ears to the cruel and predatory nature of the regime.
Undoubtedly, that fearsome machine will run full steam to put the blame on everyone but Orban; big question is how far it gets them.
Some friends are hopeful that the events open the electorates’s eyes and ears to the cruel and predatory nature of the regime.
12/n
I‘m more cautious.
There are different paths mounting anger towards the government could take, and only one of them is the strengthening of democratic partie.
True, former far-right party jobbik has both weakened and moderated considerably.
I‘m more cautious.
There are different paths mounting anger towards the government could take, and only one of them is the strengthening of democratic partie.
True, former far-right party jobbik has both weakened and moderated considerably.
13/n
Nevertheless... at least since 2015, when (triggered by the refugee crisis) Orban decided to abandon his strategy of being in the relative center and instead moved to occupy the far-right, Hungarian voters have been exposed to
Nevertheless... at least since 2015, when (triggered by the refugee crisis) Orban decided to abandon his strategy of being in the relative center and instead moved to occupy the far-right, Hungarian voters have been exposed to
14/n
a permanent, relentless, brutal hate-and-fear campaign, coming at them on TV, radio, newspapers, internet, street billboards and letters from the government.
This had the clear intention to build up an alternative reality in people‘s heads, with its own rules and villains.
a permanent, relentless, brutal hate-and-fear campaign, coming at them on TV, radio, newspapers, internet, street billboards and letters from the government.
This had the clear intention to build up an alternative reality in people‘s heads, with its own rules and villains.
15/n
The key thing is that this amounted to nothing less than a quintessentially fascist conditioning of the electorate.
As abhorrent as Orban‘s actions were, his propaganda was ever more hateful and brutal, which in itself could & would have justified rather bloody policies.
The key thing is that this amounted to nothing less than a quintessentially fascist conditioning of the electorate.
As abhorrent as Orban‘s actions were, his propaganda was ever more hateful and brutal, which in itself could & would have justified rather bloody policies.
16/n
This allowed Orban in a perverted way to appear as „measured“ and „moderate“ before the electorate and carried an eternal warning; i.e. that the logical consequences of the propaganda‘s accusations can be switched on anytime by those in power.
This allowed Orban in a perverted way to appear as „measured“ and „moderate“ before the electorate and carried an eternal warning; i.e. that the logical consequences of the propaganda‘s accusations can be switched on anytime by those in power.
17/n
In sum, Orban successfully hysterised and radicalised the electorate and then presented himself as a mildly moderating force.
So... I guess no-one really knows what way discontent will take, if it erupts.
In sum, Orban successfully hysterised and radicalised the electorate and then presented himself as a mildly moderating force.
So... I guess no-one really knows what way discontent will take, if it erupts.
