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Deaths are not increasing yet because the oldest age-range is not getting sick. This is a very popular question, so hopefully some detailed charts will help understand what is happening. https://twitter.com/keepinthafaith/status/1284292498349797376
First, a little about the lag. It certainly exists so we need to understand how that lag presents itself in Ohio's data. What we know:
1- deaths usually occur 7-10 days after onset (but recoveries average 21 days)
2- 75% of deaths are in the data set within 10 days
1- deaths usually occur 7-10 days after onset (but recoveries average 21 days)
2- 75% of deaths are in the data set within 10 days
This gives us a total lag of 20 days from onset. That is 75% of all deaths *are in the data set* w/in 20d of onset, 90% w/in 30.
20-30 days ago is June 16-26.
90% of deaths from 6/16 will be in the data,
75% of deaths from 6/26
20-30 days ago is June 16-26.
90% of deaths from 6/16 will be in the data,
75% of deaths from 6/26
First chart zooms in on Cases by Onset date for age ranges 60-69, 70-79, and 80+. Notice the increases starting near June 16:
• mostly in the 60-69 range.
• 70-79 (orange) is not any higher than it was in mid April • 80+ (red) is less than half of April
• mostly in the 60-69 range.
• 70-79 (orange) is not any higher than it was in mid April • 80+ (red) is less than half of April
Based on the lag we know exists in reporting, we're looking to see if there is any increase at the tail of the chart from June 16-26.
There is a small increase from 4 to 6 for the 80+ age range (red), but 70-79 (orange) and 60-69 (blue) are flat or declining.
There is a small increase from 4 to 6 for the 80+ age range (red), but 70-79 (orange) and 60-69 (blue) are flat or declining.
Keeping in mind that the trends highlighted above are about 20% lower than their total (we only have 75-90% of the total), consider that "all in" it will be close to:
80+: 7 deaths per 30 cases (25% fatal)
70-79: 5 deaths on 60 cases (8%)
60-69: 2 deaths on 100 cases (2%)
80+: 7 deaths per 30 cases (25% fatal)
70-79: 5 deaths on 60 cases (8%)
60-69: 2 deaths on 100 cases (2%)
These mortality rates are also lower than what they used to be. Mostly this boils down to
1- earlier detection yields better outcomes
2- better care options (medical community is getting better at delivering non-fatal outcomes)
1- earlier detection yields better outcomes
2- better care options (medical community is getting better at delivering non-fatal outcomes)
TL;DR
Deaths are not increasing with Cases because:
1- at risk age groups are a small percentage of the spike; they have lower case counts now than they did in April and May
2- early detection and better treatment decreases fatality rate
Deaths are not increasing with Cases because:
1- at risk age groups are a small percentage of the spike; they have lower case counts now than they did in April and May
2- early detection and better treatment decreases fatality rate
