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START/ This thread contains all-cause mortality charts for children aged 0-14 for every country tracked by the Human Mortality Database ( http://mortality.org ).
Due to the large number of countries, this thread will be posted in two installments, one on 7/17, one on 7/18.
Due to the large number of countries, this thread will be posted in two installments, one on 7/17, one on 7/18.
1/ Finland: We start with Finland because it's unusual. There was a tragic school shooting in 2007 which appears in this data. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jokela_school_shooting
I post Finland first to provide a sense of scale: That very large spike is the result of 9 fatalities.
Very small numbers.
I post Finland first to provide a sense of scale: That very large spike is the result of 9 fatalities.
Very small numbers.
2/ Belgium: We continue with Belgium, which is among the highest per-capita mortality rates from COVID in the world.
Yet, there is no evidence of this when looking at the childhood mortality data.
Yet, there is no evidence of this when looking at the childhood mortality data.
3/ Denmark: The first country to reopen schools, having previously closed them.
They are experiencing no ill effects of this decision.
They are experiencing no ill effects of this decision.
4/ Austria: Not much to say here. There was limited effect of COVID overall. Looks much the same as most of the other charts.
5/ Switzerland: Another of the countries to reopen schools rather early, on May 11. Again, no ill effects are evident among children.
6/ Bulgaria: A country that has not reopened schools. Eastern Europe as a whole has been quite reluctant to do so.
Can you spot the difference?
Can you spot the difference?
7/ Czech Republic: Similarly has not reopened schools.
You're going to get really bored of looking at charts like this soon, aren't you?
You're going to get really bored of looking at charts like this soon, aren't you?
8/ Germany: This chart looks a little different, because I could sense you were getting bored. The data only goes back to 2016.
Germany is an interesting comparison, since they allowed states to decide when to reopen schools. Likely what will happen here in the US.
Germany is an interesting comparison, since they allowed states to decide when to reopen schools. Likely what will happen here in the US.
9/ Spain: Another of the hardest-hit countries. Unlike Belgium, they did not reopen schools in the spring semester - but plan to open them in full for the fall semester, starting in September.
10/ Sweden: If you follow me, you've already seen this one. I just cleaned up the annotations to make them like the others.
No closure of schools. No problems.
No closure of schools. No problems.
11/ Estonia: OK, honestly, I don't know how reliable the data reporting is in Estonia. There are periods where they reported 0 childhood deaths. I guess that's possible?
Anyway, Estonia reopened schools too.
Anyway, Estonia reopened schools too.
12/ France: I listed a May 11 school restart date, although they staggered their school reopenings (Parisian schools opened later), and they were heavily restricted. Still, at least they're trying, unlike California.
13/ United States: I mean, I guess we should just ignore all those countries in the thread above this one? What's at stake, anyway? Just an education for 50 million kids? Eh, whatever.
14/ Done for today (July 17). There are more of these. I've probably convinced you that they all look the same. If I haven't, well, I'll try to add the others tomorrow.
15/ Norway: Sweden's neighbor reassessed their lockdown strategy. "Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus ... was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing." https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/norway-health-chief-lockdown-was-not-needed-to-tame-covid
16/ England & Wales: Interested to hear how the school debate is going across the pond. As best I can tell, they plan to reopen schools in the fall.
17/ Italy: You might have heard that Italy had a pretty rough experience with COVID.
But you wouldn't know it from the kids.
But you wouldn't know it from the kids.
18/ Hungary: I'll avoid making a joke about how I haven't had breakfast yet. Kids are fine here.
19/ Netherlands: One of the most outspoken nations about the risks (or lack thereof) of COVID to children and childhood transmission of the virus. Schools are open. https://www.rivm.nl/en/novel-coronavirus-covid-19/children-and-covid-19
20/ Scotland: Really just looks like any other month or two in the last 10 years.
21/ Israel: This is the one the "closed school" worrywarts are pointing to these days. They're closing schools again now in the face of increased spread.
Makes you wonder why none of the other countries had increased spread after reopening schools? Correlation =/= causation.
Makes you wonder why none of the other countries had increased spread after reopening schools? Correlation =/= causation.
22/ Iceland: A country that never closed its schools, and like the Netherlands, has been at the forefront of science in this area. They remain steadfast in their opinion: Schools are safe to operate. https://twitter.com/NahasNewman/status/1283630960660144133
23/ Lithuania: Did you know that Lithuania reopened their schools, too? Neither did I until I made this chart! I mean, why would you, right?
24/ Slovakia: Tally another one for open schools here.
25/ Portugal: Interestingly, Portugal reopened schools for older kids first. Kind of the opposite of what the science and logic would seem to dictate. Nobody has heard about disasters in Portugal yet, though.
END/ As we can see above, there is no evidence of increased childhood mortality in any of the dozens of countries on which we have data. Schools were reopened in a majority of these countries; a focus on Israel without mentioning others is disingenuous.
Your kids are safe.
Your kids are safe.
