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I used data to find out just how effective Arjen Robben was at "cutting inside". A thread
Arjen Robben is well known for being particularly prolific when drifting with the ball towards central areas from wide. I'll be gathering data on his xG over-performance from these areas over the last few years, to determine how good he actually was at his trademark finish
To begin, below is Arjen Robben's open-play shot map over the last 5 seasons:
It's fairly obvious to see he favours shooting positions in and around the right half-space, whether he's statistically *efficient* at doing so is the question we'll be attempting to answer.
For this thread, I'll use the below boundaries to determine whether a shot that Robben took qualifies as a trademark "Robben-zone" attempt.
14/15 SEASON:
This is where our data begins, From Robben's shots in his trademark area, He amassed 3.63 xG from his 21 games that season. In other words, the average player would be expected to scored roughly between 3 and 4 goals if he shot identically, whereas Robben scored 9.
This is where our data begins, From Robben's shots in his trademark area, He amassed 3.63 xG from his 21 games that season. In other words, the average player would be expected to scored roughly between 3 and 4 goals if he shot identically, whereas Robben scored 9.
15/16 SEASON:
Devastating injuries plagued Robben's play time this year as he went goalless from shots in the "Robben zone". He garnered a total of 2.26 xG this year from the set area and the average player would be expected to scored around 2 goals.
Devastating injuries plagued Robben's play time this year as he went goalless from shots in the "Robben zone". He garnered a total of 2.26 xG this year from the set area and the average player would be expected to scored around 2 goals.
16/17 SEASON
Back and fit again, Robben amassed 3.52 xG from shots in the allocated area. Where the average player would likely score around 4 times from if they shot from the same positions, Robben in fact scored 8 times.
Back and fit again, Robben amassed 3.52 xG from shots in the allocated area. Where the average player would likely score around 4 times from if they shot from the same positions, Robben in fact scored 8 times.
17/18 SEASON:
At this point it was fairly accepted Robben was out of his "prime", Though he was still a useful cog in Bayern's system. He totalled 2.98 xG whilst shooting in the below area for that season, and scored 2 times.
At this point it was fairly accepted Robben was out of his "prime", Though he was still a useful cog in Bayern's system. He totalled 2.98 xG whilst shooting in the below area for that season, and scored 2 times.
18/19 SEASON:
Robben was still going strong at Bayern, even at 35 years old. His xG from shots taken in his trademark zone finished at 2.39 for the season, whilst he scored 3 goals from these positions
Robben was still going strong at Bayern, even at 35 years old. His xG from shots taken in his trademark zone finished at 2.39 for the season, whilst he scored 3 goals from these positions
SUMMARY:
Yes, it's not always ideal to use xG in small sample sizes like this, but regardless, it's easy to see why Robben's unique finishing is held in such a high regard. Over the last 5 seasons Robben managed to score a total of 24 goals from 14.88 xG from his favourite area.
Yes, it's not always ideal to use xG in small sample sizes like this, but regardless, it's easy to see why Robben's unique finishing is held in such a high regard. Over the last 5 seasons Robben managed to score a total of 24 goals from 14.88 xG from his favourite area.
There are only a few, rare breed of players who are able to consistently exceed xG over a large-ish sample, and at least from shooting from these particular areas, Robben might very well have been one of them.
Thanks for reading
