Since 2010 UK state spending has shrunk by 6% of GDP. In the same period the French state has shrunk by just 1% of GDP. This comparison is quite a big thing in France. Quite a lot of debate and discussion about the merits or not of austerity. In the UK I don't hear much.
It's a really good discussion though. Same size countries. Very similar form of country. Same size economies. Same sectoral mix in their economies. Quite similar histories. Capital cities of the same size. I really do think it's a pretty good natural experiment. So do the French.
My experience in the UK is that economists will quickly derail the discussion by redefining austerity when their pre-existing views are challenged by this comparison. The problem is that austerity now has two meanings in UK English and they are incompatible.
If austerity means spending cuts then the UK did austerity and France didn't do austerity. Easy.
If austerity means spending cuts or tax rises that reduce the budget deficit then both countries did it. Just France did it mostly through tax rises, and the UK through spending cuts.
If you are a UK economist who flips between the two definitions once I've shown you the data that proves you're wrong by the one you started with then... please desist. But I digress. Spending cuts vs. tax rises. The UK vs. France. We have a pretty neat natural experiment.
The biggest win for the UK is on unemployment. It fell far quicker in the UK than in France. And we know from lots of "alternatives to GDP" measures that unemployment makes society really miserable. This data has made me more pro-UK (and thus, in a way, more pro-cuts).
Life matters. It needs a more detailed analysis (all of the things in this thread do, obviously) but I find the data suggesting that Brits have lost on average half a year of life to spending cuts pretty convincing. And that's all of us not just the 4% in the gap in unemployment.
To be as blunt as possible --- French society is a bit more miserable because about 5% more of its workforce is unemployed. But 0.5% more of UK society is dead... so yeah, good luck balancing that out in your costs and benefits graph.
The last bit of data I'll look at is GDP. I think this matters a lot. And a core argument of anti-austerity people is that the UK sacrificed potential GDP growth by cutting spending. So France will have grown more then right? Right? Nope. Same growth in both.
French GDP did overtake the UK in 2019. Probably due to the brilliantly controversial combination of Macron and Brexit. And with that lovely can of worms open, I'll have a Campari and soda. (ps. there is much more interesting stuff to share from France vs. UK comparisons).
And now --- even though it's a terrible technique for achieving anything, but I've got a Campari & soda so I don't care --- here's all the data that you can use to say that I'm wrong.
It is of course absurd to link spending cuts and austerity to supressed increases in life expectancy. Because one of Europe's top performers on life expectancy is Greece. (anti-austerity voices rarely celebrate this or even know about it, but there it is).
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