#RajasthanPoliticalCrisis
( NEXT MOVE BY CONGRESS/PILOT/VASUNDHARA/BJP)
For understanding the what is happening in #RajasthanPolitics we have to first understand the role of Bjp in this scenario.
And for doing that we have to look slightly into the past of state Bjp unit
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I will try to summarise this in the shortest way possible.
START
* 6 dec 2003 - Vasundhara raje elected as bjp leader of rajasthan unit
* 8 dec 2003 - raje took tha oath as CM of state
2003 elections in itself are very interesting as political point of view , but we only+
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Have to remember that in that election
* Rama pilot - mother of sachin pilot lost from jhalrapatan seat against Vasundhara Raje from a margin of 27000+ votes.
* In her tenure from 2003-2008 her conflicts with 3 generation RSS dynast leader ghanshyam tiwari are well known.
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But in Today's perspective its of no use. Our main focus will be on a face of RSS which is in a very influential position today
“ om prakash Mathur ”.
He was gujarat bjp incharge in 2007 ( made modi win the elections after 2002 ) After saying that i think I don't have to+
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* 8 june 2009 - Om mathur resigned to make pressure on Vasundhara. But it was as useful as @she fight against rahul Gandhi for congress president post.

* 8 dec 2008- Final results:cong -96
Bjp - 78
Vasundhara became “ leader of opposition ”. she was highly criticised by sangh and bjp workers. Blaming her arrogance and hitlershahi behaviour for party's defeat.
Rajnath asked her to step down from post of LOP but Raje +
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blatantly refused and blamed it on sangh and centre.
* Then in LS elections Raje campaigned for 3 weeks for her son only and Bjp got only 4/25 seats Sangh was furious and so was the Bjp high command
this time Raje didn't have anyone to blame
But she again refused to resign
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* 8 june 2009 - mathur resigned to make pressure on Vasundhara But it was as useful as @Shehzad_Ind fight against rahul Gandhi for congress president post
* 15 Aug 2009 - Raje went to Delhi at lal kila with her 57/78 MLAs. It was a warning for Rajnath singh to stop +
(8/n)

Pressurising Raje to step down.
In the end Rajnath was embarrassed and have to back down.
* But Raje Finally did retired from LOP , after some negotiations with new
contemporaneous bjp president Nitin Gadkari.
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* 2009 - A hardcore RSS member and that time rajasthan bjp general secretary - prakash chandra was removed from his post due to his differences with Raje ( and this post was vacant till 2017 ) , that's the seriousness of conflict between Raje and RSS.
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* May 6 2012 - one year before 2013 elections , Raje threatens to quit the party because of a political Yatra by her staunch opponent “ gulab chand kataria ”. 56/78 MLAs submitted their resignations to that time state president arun chaturvedi.
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* 17 September 2013 - one month before elections another hardcore RSS member Sunil bhargava resigned from the primary membership and treasurer post of bjp , because no action was taken against Raje on his complaint which was made to Rajnath singh.
I am attaching a post +
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related to what bhargav said please do read what he said
But the fun fact is bhargav never left the RSS he was usually seen at Rss meetings and was meeting with cadre at time to time
* 26 may 2014 - Then comes the historic victory of Modi all were clear that it was modi's+
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Victory.
but Vasundhara denied, said it is because of her and modi combined efforts that we got 25/25 seats.
And in the end no ministerial berth was given to her son Dushyant.

* 2015 - lalit modi incidence , sushma saved herself by taking stance on humanitarian grounds , but role of Raje was clear that she helped lalit modi n not only helped but took money from him.
Sangh demanded her resignation , but no action was taken.
(15/n)

* Differences between Vasundhara n sangh were increasing day by day , and a time came when sangh compared Vasundhara with “ aurangzeb ”.
* 4 oct 2017 - Vasundhara herself took the command of upcoming bypolls of ajmer and alwar seats and the result were as expected by sangh
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* 16 April 2018 - High command took the resignation of a close aide of Vasundhara ( ashok parnami ) and from there the tussle of power show between shah and Raje started.
See the margin of votes by which candidates lost their elections
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* Rss and shah proposed the name of Gajendra singh shekhawat ( MP from jodhpur ). But Vasundhara refused and for around 75 days in the election year State Bjp was without a party president .
Raje went delhi with 100+ MLAs to meet shah , but shah refused.
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* 30 june 2018 - finally name of madan lal saini was finalized. And this was not the end
stories are many (how a senior jat leader died in the presence of amit shah because of poor Medical arrangement at the venue)
sawarmal jat died because there was no ambulance available
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( I will not go more into ticket distribution controversy and all but Today's position is Raje still has support of 40+ MLAs because she got around 85 tickets for her loyalists in the first list of Bjp electoral candidates itself. In second list this number just increased)
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I told all this past because some bjp supporters were asking why would shah will not make Vasundhara CM again.
And to make you guys clear that in present time Bjp and Raje are on diff. Boats.
Don't expect them to sail together Raje can even support gehlot in today's Fiasco
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So now when you know almost everything about the conflict now look at recent postions Vasundhara Raje's Political rivals in Bjp.
*Gulab chand kataria (RSS backed): LOP in rajasthan assembly
*Satish poonia (Rss backed) : Rajasthan state president
* Om mathur: Vice President of BJP

* gajendra singh shekhawat :Union minister in GOI
* Amit shah: home minister of India
* Rajnath singh: defence minister of India
* Sunil bhargava dramatic returns to Bjp after state assembly elections
* Rajyavardhan singh (sent to jaipur to increase his strength in state cadre)

( There are more names which are in powerful postions at present , but i personally think above names are enough to tell you people that
“ how Vasundhara is completely surrounded by her political opponents ”. )
Now we will talk about the political aims of each group +
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1. Congress – wants to disqualify pilot supporters so they can easily get majority in State
In an assembly of 200 seats disqualification of 19 MLAs will lead to Majority mark to 91 MLAs.
Current strength of congress is - 109 as per gehlot.
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2. Pilot's -
a).first priority is saving his supporters frm getting disqualified (4 that he have to show that he is still in congress) by going to court
- court will then direct congress to prove that pilot took money from Bjp
- congress will eventually fail bcos pilot +
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- this will lead to his improve his image among the party cadre and public.
b). Removing gehlot from CM test by cross voting at the time of floor test
c ). Getting a Powerful post in state whenever a new gov. Is formed.
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3. Raje's - she is the key player in present situation
* Now is her chance to shut all his Political rivals in Bjp in one move , n gaining power again in the state she can even support gehlot at the time of floor test with her MLAs if Bjp don't agree on her terms.
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4. Bjp – high command is monitoring very closely (Sending ED for raid in the mid of this fiasco was to show congress and bjp leaders that are watching everything).
* Party is mobilising its MLAs n decreasing support for Vasundhara within the party ( Poonia ji is playing +
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very critical role in this )
* Om mathur is following instructions from Nagpur bcos this is the time to kill two birds with one stone
- think it this way , imagine what will happen if Vasundhara threatens to quit Bjp or joins congress if Bjp makes any other politician CM
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face just before 2023 elections ??
- party will break down just before the elections and congress can win again.
But but but in today's condition this will not hurt party that much if she leaves in today's time , that's the reason they are doing everything to sideline her
(30/n)

- her every political rival in state was given some imp. Position in party for that sole reason

- when pilot will win the case against gehlot , Bjp will demand floor test. , In which every MLAs from pilot's group and Bjp will vote to topple the gov.
(31/n)

Listen yourself and ask.
Gulabchand kataria and satish Poonia knows that gehlot don't have numbers , but still they are approaching governer.
Rest we will see in up-coming days , but one thing is certain that this is not going to end 1-2 days , it will take almost 1-2 months

I personally believe that
“ when one wants to know about his/her future , he/she should always retrace one' past ”.
I hope this will make u understand what's real game is.
Please give your valuable feedbacks and stay healthy .
Sorry for any typo errors and
JAI HIND .