It's thread o'clock.

Let's have a look at the first week of results from @PokerStars Stadium Series, and what that might mean for the next 8 weeks of online poker action. https://pokerindustrypro.com/news/article/211547-high-stakes-overlays-pokerstars-stadium-series-should-give

Backstory:

Stadium Series guarantees $50 million, started last week, runs for three more. Each week, buy-ins ramp up. All single day events, 3 REs max.

@WSOP's bracelets on @GGPoker start on Sunday. 7 weeks. 13 have guarantees totaling $68M gtd https://pokerindustrypro.com/news/article/211517-ggpoker-reveals-full-wsop-online-schedule-featuring-25

@Partypoker @WPT World Online Championships, starts Friday, also 7 weeks. $100 million guaranteed, including 29 championship events with >$50M guaranteed

So, it is not hyperbole to say that this is the biggest summer we've ever seen in online poker.

I've written a bunch on this before - if you're a PRO subscriber, this is an in-depth look at all the schedules.

In this feature, I identify four things that have happened with coronavirus that have resulted in this huge guaranteed tournament series. https://pokerindustrypro.com/news/article/211522-online-pokers-extraordinary-summer-operators-prepare

Doubling in interest in real money online poker

Home games moving online

Live events being canceled

Operators wanting something in the portfolio to demo to investors as something that shows resilience/diversification.

Result: Something like $800 million (and that was just in series guarantees, not counting the ridic weekly tournaments) was paid out over spring, with SCOOP, WPT Online, partypoker Powerfest, GG WSOP Circuit, 888 and many more all running huge series. https://pokerindustrypro.com/news/article/211451-how-more-800-million-was-paid-out-online-poker-tournament

So along rolls summer:

Online poker interest losing at least 80% of its massive traffic spike.
Weather improving
Lockdowns lifting
Operators see sports betting recovering.
Casinos opening, and even talk/planning of poker returning. https://pokerindustrypro.com/news/article/211514-online-poker-traffic-back-down-near-pre-pandemic-levels

Sidebar: For more on the poker live events returning, see yesterday's thread regarding PokerStars gearing up for EPT Sochi in October.

However, I must add the promised Spin and Gos have still yet to go live, at least here in the UK. https://twitter.com/pokerprojones/status/1282628464563163141

So as stated - no one ever runs anything interesting in summer. We can see a summer lull of something like 30% in traffic usually. Poker players are in Vegas, recreational players are outside.

Except for this summer, that is. We are entering uncharted territory.

The open questions:

Are wallets dry after the billion dollar spring?
Are people mostly back to normal day-to-day work/vacations/staycations, or is there still an increase in more at-home solo consumption?
Are players just sick of playing tournaments yet?

Let's find out by scheduling some ridiculous tournament series!

So PokerStars Stadium Series. Here's Week 1 results. Yellow is <7.5% excess of guarantee. Red is overlays.

First thing that pops out - the Highs ($500) were mostly missed. All but the PKO overlayed, or were close.

(All images etc here are credit @pokerindpro - please do give credit if you share)

Is that an issue?

Traditionally PokerStars blows through all guarantees. Have been criticized by some in the past for not being ambitious enough. So this could just more aggressive sched

Week 1 they brought in around $600K in rake, easily covering the ~$130K in overlays

So on one hand, that's all good. Some value for players (check that Weekly Final Low - 27% miss! And it's a freezeout people!).

Maybe PokerStars is expecting some overlay here. $50M series and only 100 events is a v high average - more than SCOOP/WCOOP.

But on the other hand... PokerStars missing 5 guarantees on the trot in $500 buy-in tournaments is hardly normal.

And that's just it. Nothing is normal about this summer. https://twitter.com/pokerprojones/status/1282751036093014016

But if I was GG or partypoker, I'd be watching this series really closely.

Both series have a bunch of similar buy-in tournaments with muuuch bigger guarantees.

Here are GG bracelets with guarantees. Note the $400 Colossus/Plossus. And the Mini Main.

9MM gtd in those 3 alone.

Here's the partypoker WPT schedule of Championships with $330 buyins. Five with $1 million guarantees.

And there are all single re-entry, with at most two Day 1 flights.

Of course, all series are different - operators are super-charging things here, with millions of $$$ of ticket promos, giveaways, leaderboards, satellite steps etc etc etc.

WPT & WSOP are obviously massive brands which should have huge draw.

As already touched on, all 3 operators are planning big streaming schedules - it's going to be Twitch poker streaming on steroids over the next couple of months.

Great deep dive on this by @sambevington https://pokerindustrypro.com/news/article/211538-focus-streaming-strategies-online-pokers-big-summer

So, who knows what's going to happen when events kick off this weekend.

But if I were to call it - do I think there will be some massive value opportunities here across all three networks for players over the next two months?

Absolutely.