Few thoughts on where we are with the market.

1) Expectations for the div increase weren't met so the increase over the last week has come to a halt and we're back to where we were before FI announced it was coming.

2) Even if they had been met we'd have seen a period of rises and then it would have stopped again. This is because we only have half of the order books implemented skewing the market towards buyers and creating a stalemate.

3) This has come at the same time as what is a weird part of the season. Only three leagues playing + only a few games left in them. 5 subs and lower intensity means fewer premium winners than normal. This would have been a slower period even without changes to the market.

4) The permanent fix to the stalemate is sell orders, which we know are coming, but at the end of Auugst. Big question is can these be bought forward? If not will Europe gold days + the new season be enough to create liquidity without action by FI?

5) I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some short term promotions to tide us over during this period. 5/6 weeks is a long time for nothing to happen in the market (and that's if they can meet the end of August deadline).

6) However in the wider scheme of things 6 weeks, even 10 weeks is nothing. Zoom out and we know the solution to the current problem is coming. We know that yields are very good and some players in particular are now very undervalued. It is a temporary lull.

7) A few months after I joined IPD were launched and there was a similar period (albeit for different reasons) and it was a bit dull and frustrating for a few months. But god I'm glad I didn't quit then. Would have missed out massively.

8) Final point - like others I've been a bit frustrated about comms over the past month but from the share split, last dividend increase, and through COVID the comms has been really good. So I'm prepared to cut them some slack.

9) Had they not handled COVID well it could have killed the product. They reacted quickly and smartly and have a lot of credit in the bank from me for that.

10) One further thought- the psychology of moving to order books will be easier if traders stop think of the nominal buy price as the value of their player and start using the IS price.

11) Will be better under full order books because sellers will be able to set prices too so prices will rise from current IS (in most cases) but be lower than current buy prices (in most cases).