Understanding keepers. A thread.

Not of all of you care about them.
I think you should.
Right now they present extremely good value.
Their divs are maybe more predictable and more consistent than any other positions and yields are currently better.

Which means if you do a bit of reasearch they will continue to be profitable long into the future.

They are potentially more predictable for a number of reasons.

Simpler matrix. Less factors to analyse.
Very much dependant on team style so easy to forecast pb potential on transfer
Very Matchup dependant scores
No threat of position changes
Low std deviation of scores

So what does it take to win GK PB. These are the average winning scores for different League keepers on different matchdays.

Differences between the leagues are negligible. Which means there is value everywhere. What you will notice is that it is a lot lower for UEL.

Remember both UEL and UCL scores have less competition especially UEL. These comps also give a 1.25 to scores meaning they stand keepers in great stead for TOTM.

But the average winning score is an overused stat in FI communities just cause you dont score over 250 for midfielders 230 for fwds etc & 170 for keepers doesn't mean you cant win PB. Here are the chances of winning Pb if you score over a certain number + between a certain number

Stephen has already put out a nice thread on Divs won and Player scores. So I'll just direct you there for that.
https://twitter.com/FIDataStephen/status/1282052625135996934
You are looking at yields of easily over 10% with an IPD window as well.

https://twitter.com/FIDataStephen/status/1282052628239781889

Over the last year only 5 24s and under have yielded more than 10% on the whole platform. So about 1%.
For keepers its closer to 4 in 50. and they havent got there by complete fluke like some other positions have with massive starman hauls.

You also have to factor in that Keepers have a longer career span so yields are even better.

just look at these two if you want examples of that

Larsonner 23 43p 8pdivs 18% yield
Unai simon 23 72p 7p 10% yield

Fbref is agreat site to use to evaluate keepers. Unai simon the replacement to Kepa has the second best psxg in the pb leagues with +9.2
Which shows he has saved 9.2 goals more than the avg keeper would save. Kepa onthe other hand is at -5.4. Which is y might sell

So thats good to evaluate ability and look at style of play. But whats good for Pb.
Clean sheets obvioulsy
In all of Allisons + Manuel Neurs games, the two biggest div earners they only have 1 score between them over 160 without a clean sheet. CS are essential.

Here is a table to show the keepers with the best GC per game rate & CS pergame rate in an attempt to find out who has potentially been unlucky in relation to how many CS theyve kept for how many goals theyve conceded

Mendy rajkovic lopes + Gomis all potentially unlucky w CS

Other than that I can't see a massive preference to any certain type of keeper. Evaluating the defence is probably just as important.

There are plenty of keepers who have got unlucky and won less than 10p positional divs with high top 5 scores.

Pau Gomez and Gulacsi have won TOTM on top of those divs. no suprise with scores like that tho.
And predrag actually won star man as well with a 230 score.

Main takeaways
Yields are better than other positions atm
Avg yield of top 50 when calculated was 8%
Keepers last longer
Peak later
CS essential
UEL with lots of nonpb teams its easy CS/div/totm wins
Find keepers with good pb and actual stats
Look for Ipd+TOTM buy ins
look at xG

Here are some of my favourites
Unai simon. Bilbao. Will he replace Kepa twice. Amazing stats. only 23. Hot property.

Coeen Casteels.
In europa this year. In europa qualifying next year. Took over midway thru season. 45p 6p in divs 13% yield. Wolfsburg always in and around the top of the league. https://twitter.com/ARDataAnalysis/status/1153303726100295680

Pau Lopez.
73p with 14p in divs = 19% Yield in only 27 games.
Improving Roma side. Currently in Europa. In the hunt for europa next year.

Donnaruma
Monster Keeper.
21
Milan improving
Agent is none other than Mino Raiola so expect a big transfer to a top club, hes made noise about wanting to leave before. Clean sheets await and a a sprinkle of Mb.

Alisson.
Out injured for a lot of last season yet still managed to get 22p in divs for a 14% yield.
Oliver Baumann
In europa next year with a whopping 16p divs + 32% yield this year.
Luigi Sepe 38p
PB scrs of 194 193 170 150
Edourd mendy strakoshka gollini lasonne and many others

Also pickford and kepa suck dont buy them they will be sold soon. Buy henderson great underlying stats.

Thanks for making it this far.
More Keeper threads if you want to go further.
https://twitter.com/Freunds_Mullet/status/1281957549969936384
https://twitter.com/FIDataStephen/status/1282052623865192452