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1. Let's compare CA (population 40M) with France and the UK, two countries planning or having already reopened schools. I note that no one wants schools to reopen more than me. I have a toddler and teen at home 24/7 and want to see my own students. Reality has other ideas...
2. For context, CA would be #6 on the international list with 320K total cases, right behind Peru. We'll pass Peru soon b/c we are adding more cases daily. These are just raw number, not adjusted for population. CA has a BIG outbreak.
3. If we adjust for population (UK and FR have about 67-68 million people), then CA scaled up would have a 7-day average of 13,000 cases a day. UK 7-day average is 580. FR 7-day average is 460. Scaled-up CA is 28x the 7-day average cases when compared to FR. Different leagues.
4. UK Chart shows clearly the pandemic is under much better control and heading down, despite their horrific start.
5. FR chart also shows a much better controlled situation.
6. Even so it wasn't smooth sailing. Reopening had issues in May. (And they wear masks, because they are more mature and caring than us.) https://www.businessinsider.com/70-new-coronavirus-cases-reported-after-french-schools-begin-reopening-2020-5
7. And we all understand the hardships created by keeping schools closed. This is why we should avoid pandemics and invest in prevention and listen to epidemiologists and scientists! https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52769626
8. Now let's welcome ourselves back to Hotel Corona California... The chart says we're in a long, gnarly wave in CA, and far from pulling things back down to the x-axis. Nothing close to UK or FR. It's time for a reality check, Californians.
9. CA is getting schooled by the virus. Online school is bad for many kids and widens inequities to our shame. But opening schools now doesn't solve those problems in a *pandemic context*, because schools are unsafe in CA (setting aside small rural areas).
10. And it also alarms me how little teachers, staff, and vulnerable parents/guardians are mentioned. Children don't live alone, renting their own flat. Children live with other people (families), and they work with caring teachers and staff, who deserve a safe workplace.
11. Reopening schools requires controlling the coronavirus. It's the fundamental thing we did NOT do that the UK and FR are doing much better at. We did not apply science and listen to experts. Instead we opened too early, went to bars, and used up our "in person" budget.
12. In light of the UK, FR comparisons, reopening in CA is absurd. The focus should be on hammering the curve and controlling the epidemic. We should put schools (not bars) at the top of the list next time.
13. Here's a sobering case. Parents dying of covid-19, leaving 5 orphaned kids. More stories like this are around the corner. And if you think kids learn worse online, how about when they lose one or more family members? https://nypost.com/2020/06/11/la-parents-both-die-of-coronavirus-leaving-five-kids-orphaned/
14. And then there’s this. https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/11/politics/cdc-documents-warn-high-risk-schools-reopening/index.html
