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3 Quarterbacks went top 6 in the 2020 NFL draft
SoOoO lets take a looksy at some historical data for QBs *Rookies + Recent Top 10 QBs
How many starts as a rookie? (Lots)
Fantasy expectations? PPG? Trends
***** Year 2
@MyFantasyLeague @TrueNorthFFB
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vfMDeQa-V2Qp6kUmMnnc9KYKsL-Uee3Y1yfzunQn1mU/edit#gid=0
SoOoO lets take a looksy at some historical data for QBs *Rookies + Recent Top 10 QBs
How many starts as a rookie? (Lots)
Fantasy expectations? PPG? Trends
***** Year 2
@MyFantasyLeague @TrueNorthFFB
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vfMDeQa-V2Qp6kUmMnnc9KYKsL-Uee3Y1yfzunQn1mU/edit#gid=0
15 signal callers since 2012 have been drafted top 10
* felt like a nice round number that's why I chose it ^
* We'll also look at ALL rookie QBs since 2000
* Just to show the relationship between rushing QBs +
rookie fantasy output
* felt like a nice round number that's why I chose it ^
* We'll also look at ALL rookie QBs since 2000
* Just to show the relationship between rushing QBs +
rookie fantasy output
Rookie QB Starts
among the 15 guys to drafted top 10
they average just under 13 starts
* 12.8 in their rookie season
only 2 dudes to started under 12 games as a rookie
Pat Mahomes (1)
Jared Goff (7)
13 of the past 15 QBs selected top 10
started 12+ games in year 1
among the 15 guys to drafted top 10
they average just under 13 starts
* 12.8 in their rookie season
only 2 dudes to started under 12 games as a rookie
Pat Mahomes (1)
Jared Goff (7)
13 of the past 15 QBs selected top 10
started 12+ games in year 1
Fantasy Impact is hard to come by
They haven't paid off in FF during year 1
* Even for Superflex owners
* Keep SF in mind when we talk top 24 at the position
the previous 15 QBs who went top 10
have finished on average as the QB 23 for fantasy
They haven't paid off in FF during year 1
* Even for Superflex owners
* Keep SF in mind when we talk top 24 at the position
the previous 15 QBs who went top 10
have finished on average as the QB 23 for fantasy
Fantasy has outliers but they're just that
Kyler= QB 8 in 2019
he scored 285 points
That serves as an argument for Kyler- not rookie QBs
Top Rookie QBs Seasons (NFL history)
Cam 370.3
RG3 317.5
Dak 286.9
Kyler 286.3
*all= 60+ FF pts via rushing
* 3/4 went 1st or 2nd overall
Kyler= QB 8 in 2019
he scored 285 points
That serves as an argument for Kyler- not rookie QBs
Top Rookie QBs Seasons (NFL history)
Cam 370.3
RG3 317.5
Dak 286.9
Kyler 286.3
*all= 60+ FF pts via rushing
* 3/4 went 1st or 2nd overall
Quick Context
(Maybe top 10 seems like a narrow field?)
Only 7 rookie QBs have scored 250+ Fantasy Pts... EVER
aka QB 1 territory
Cam/ RG3
Dak/ Kyler/ Russ/ Luck & Jameis
* ya target the legs!
but 5 of the 7 fantasy dreamboats=
1st or 2nd overall picks https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2000&year_max=2019&season_start=1&season_end=1&pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2020&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c1stat=fantasy_points_ppr&c1comp=gt&c1val=250&c5val=1.0&order_by=fantasy_points_ppr
(Maybe top 10 seems like a narrow field?)
Only 7 rookie QBs have scored 250+ Fantasy Pts... EVER
aka QB 1 territory
Cam/ RG3
Dak/ Kyler/ Russ/ Luck & Jameis
* ya target the legs!
but 5 of the 7 fantasy dreamboats=
1st or 2nd overall picks https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2000&year_max=2019&season_start=1&season_end=1&pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2020&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c1stat=fantasy_points_ppr&c1comp=gt&c1val=250&c5val=1.0&order_by=fantasy_points_ppr
FANTASY
QB 1 seasons are very rare for rooks
QB 2 seasons are hard to come by in year one too
Since 2012
75% of QBs taken top 10 Finished QB 24 or worse in fantasy year 1
*top 24s= Kyler/ Baker/ Jameis/ Mariota (Barely)
Even looking at PPG
Holding rookie QBs feels wrong
QB 1 seasons are very rare for rooks
QB 2 seasons are hard to come by in year one too
Since 2012
75% of QBs taken top 10 Finished QB 24 or worse in fantasy year 1
*top 24s= Kyler/ Baker/ Jameis/ Mariota (Barely)
Even looking at PPG
Holding rookie QBs feels wrong
Last 20 yrs
339 QBs scored 200+ points in FF
15 were rookies (under 5%) <-- 11 went top 10
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2000&year_max=2019&season_start=1&season_end=1&pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2020&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c1stat=fantasy_points_ppr&c1comp=gt&c1val=200&c5val=1.0&order_by=fantasy_points_ppr
I like that we see the league trend in this list^
rookie hype exists cuz it's new-ish
2000-2010
Vince Young was the only 200+ rookie QB
From 2011-2019= 14
339 QBs scored 200+ points in FF
15 were rookies (under 5%) <-- 11 went top 10
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&year_min=2000&year_max=2019&season_start=1&season_end=1&pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_year_min=1936&draft_year_max=2020&draft_pick_in_round=pick_overall&conference=any&draft_pos%5B%5D=qb&draft_pos%5B%5D=rb&draft_pos%5B%5D=wr&draft_pos%5B%5D=te&draft_pos%5B%5D=e&draft_pos%5B%5D=t&draft_pos%5B%5D=g&draft_pos%5B%5D=c&draft_pos%5B%5D=ol&draft_pos%5B%5D=dt&draft_pos%5B%5D=de&draft_pos%5B%5D=dl&draft_pos%5B%5D=ilb&draft_pos%5B%5D=olb&draft_pos%5B%5D=lb&draft_pos%5B%5D=cb&draft_pos%5B%5D=s&draft_pos%5B%5D=db&draft_pos%5B%5D=k&draft_pos%5B%5D=p&c1stat=fantasy_points_ppr&c1comp=gt&c1val=200&c5val=1.0&order_by=fantasy_points_ppr
I like that we see the league trend in this list^
rookie hype exists cuz it's new-ish
2000-2010
Vince Young was the only 200+ rookie QBFrom 2011-2019= 14
Off track but really quick- RUSHING!
15 rookie QBs have scored 200+ points since 2000
12 had multiple rushing TDs
12 of them had 45+ carries OR 210+ yards rushing
10 of them had 50+ carries AND over 200 rush yds
*Only 2 hit 25 passing TD
Russ + Baker (QB 6 & 10 in PPG)
15 rookie QBs have scored 200+ points since 2000
12 had multiple rushing TDs
12 of them had 45+ carries OR 210+ yards rushing
10 of them had 50+ carries AND over 200 rush yds
*Only 2 hit 25 passing TD
Russ + Baker (QB 6 & 10 in PPG)
Back to the previous 15 QBs drafted top 10 since 2012..
We see they've been underwhelming for fantasy despite high start totals... but that's the less actionable trend
Buy these QBs as they head into year 2...
That's the smash play in all formats!
We see they've been underwhelming for fantasy despite high start totals... but that's the less actionable trend
Buy these QBs as they head into year 2...
That's the smash play in all formats!
Better folks have laid out some of these points... better
Re: QB sophomore season
- big step
- arguably (Not to me aside from a few outliers)
but we have a pretty good feel of what a QB will look like/ baseline/ upside
2 yrs gauging vs pressure/ tight windows/ adversity ECT
Re: QB sophomore season
- big step
- arguably (Not to me aside from a few outliers)
but we have a pretty good feel of what a QB will look like/ baseline/ upside
2 yrs gauging vs pressure/ tight windows/ adversity ECT
Kyler + D. Jones= This years
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vfMDeQa-V2Qp6kUmMnnc9KYKsL-Uee3Y1yfzunQn1mU/edit#gid=0
Among the prev. 13 QBs drafted top 10
QB 24 is the average fantasy finish in their rookie season..
QB 15 is the average of those same QBs year 2
(Kyler/ DJ we wait)
for SF:
6 of 15 were top 24 as rookies
11 of 15 year 2
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vfMDeQa-V2Qp6kUmMnnc9KYKsL-Uee3Y1yfzunQn1mU/edit#gid=0
Among the prev. 13 QBs drafted top 10
QB 24 is the average fantasy finish in their rookie season..
QB 15 is the average of those same QBs year 2
(Kyler/ DJ we wait)
for SF:
6 of 15 were top 24 as rookies
11 of 15 year 2
9 QB spots was the average FF increase from top 10 QBs
& only 4 declined in their 2nd yr
RG3
Jameis slid a few
Josh Rosen keeps this thing from poppin lol
& Baker went backwards
But to Bakers credit he's the only starting QB for a team entering 2020!
& only 4 declined in their 2nd yr
RG3
Jameis slid a few
Josh Rosen keeps this thing from poppin lol
& Baker went backwards
But to Bakers credit he's the only starting QB for a team entering 2020!
But the trend is most improve & significantly
of those 13 QBs drafted top 10 (2012-18)
Just 2 were top 12 in PPG in their rookie seasons
*RG3/ Luck (Kyler wud qualify)
BUT
7 of 13 went on to be top 12 in PPG in their 2nd years
*Luck/ Bortles/ Mariota/ Trubz/ Goff/ Wentz/ Pat
of those 13 QBs drafted top 10 (2012-18)
Just 2 were top 12 in PPG in their rookie seasons
*RG3/ Luck (Kyler wud qualify)
BUT
7 of 13 went on to be top 12 in PPG in their 2nd years
*Luck/ Bortles/ Mariota/ Trubz/ Goff/ Wentz/ Pat
So! BUY Kyler Murray
Daniel Jones is a maybe because of the positional depth and Q's
but nobody should be surprised by a top 12 ppg season & he has the upside/tools to accomplish it but..
The Rookie Class is tricky
we grade them so differently
for fantasy & wait times?...
Daniel Jones is a maybe because of the positional depth and Q's
but nobody should be surprised by a top 12 ppg season & he has the upside/tools to accomplish it but..
The Rookie Class is tricky
we grade them so differently
for fantasy & wait times?...
Burrow is a lock to start all 16 games
Goff is 1 of just 2 QBs drafted top 10 since 2012
to NOT start 12+ games (And he was also the 1.01)
But barring an injury...
+ Joe's age/ maturity
We'll see 16 starts from Joe
but can he hit that 250 point bar? otherwise avoid?
Goff is 1 of just 2 QBs drafted top 10 since 2012
to NOT start 12+ games (And he was also the 1.01)
But barring an injury...
+ Joe's age/ maturity
We'll see 16 starts from Joe
but can he hit that 250 point bar? otherwise avoid?
7 rookies QBs= 250+ pts since 2000
5 went 1st or 2nd overall
That's a plus for Burrow but otherwise..
Does he really stack up?
he's athletic
but not like some of the others^
he's accurate
but not like Luck
argument for top 12ish
pass heavy team
array O weapons
checks boxes
5 went 1st or 2nd overall
That's a plus for Burrow but otherwise..
Does he really stack up?
he's athletic
but not like some of the others^
he's accurate
but not like Luck
argument for top 12ish
pass heavy team
array O weapons
checks boxes
Burrow is fightin some odds but late round QB is lookin pretty ugly in 2020
&
Joe's in the same light as a Dak who's on that 250+ list
...he's a lamer version of Andrew Luck
which... I REEEALLY hope goes w/out saying..
strictly in football terms/ it'd be opposite day if not
&
Joe's in the same light as a Dak who's on that 250+ list
...he's a lamer version of Andrew Luck
which... I REEEALLY hope goes w/out saying..
strictly in football terms/ it'd be opposite day if not
Tua + Herbert fall into the majority bucket for me
More games played vs expectations
but
Tough FF holds/ hard SF starts
Both come w/ very different upside
* Tua's arm talent is huge & his team will throw
* Herbert could be a fantasy darling Ala Josh Allen
let's save em tho
More games played vs expectations
but
Tough FF holds/ hard SF starts
Both come w/ very different upside
* Tua's arm talent is huge & his team will throw
* Herbert could be a fantasy darling Ala Josh Allen
let's save em tho
