Looked at all the betting data from @nflfastR today! First is a scatter plot comparing the Vegas line at lock and the actual line of the game with colors representing density. As you can see, Vegas is very good and knows when games will be close. (1/3)
Next I looked at the distribution of distances from the actual spread. Vegas is tough to beat in the long run on closing lines! For fun, I included the biggest errors on Vegas’ part from the sample of games available. The 7 point favorite Broncos got blown out!! (2/3)
Lastly is another distribution, this time looking at O/U’s. It’s nearly 50/50 dead on which is absolutely crazy to me. Vegas’ biggest errors consist of an absolutely epic AFC North showdown and one of the worst Super Bowl’s of all time. Tip: Bet early in the week! (3/3)
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