Memphis/Shelby County Covid Update

tl;dr
- new cases, down 8% from last wk
- but testing is down 17%
- cases up 48% over 2wks ago, testing only up 10%
- positivity up to 13.6%, a new record
- also, only 32 icu beds (out of 463) are available
- harvard says lockdown necessary

1/

first, let's talk about lockdown.
- no one wants this, but we waited too long to act
- according to @HarvardGH, 25 new daily cases per 100k ppl is the 'tipping point' where stay-at-home orders are necessary to suppress the virus
- we're at 31.7
- we've been 25+ for 2 wks

2/

covid projections
- daily growth over the past 2wks has been 2.8%
- at this rate, our current 13k cases will become 25k on aug3, 50k on aug28, 100k on sept22, 250k on oct25, 500k on nov19, and then 1M on dec15
- this is not a prediction, but this is why we must act, NOW

3/

btw, i never talk about hospitalization - bc my focus is on containing and suppressing the virus, plus i have no real insight to offer there - but this is bad...

...there are only 32 (out of 463 total) icu beds available right now

4/

total covid cases
- we're up to 13,452 total cases
- but look at how the graph of cases vs the trendline
- we're still looking at exponential growth

5/

total covid tests
- compare the graph of cases above with this graph of tests
- the thing to notice is that, while testing has increased, the rate at which testing is growing is not keeping up with the rate at which cases are growing
- testing is a problem

6/

covid cases/tests per day
- notice how daily cases dropped early this wk
- but notice too how testing dropped even more
- notice how the moving avg for daily cases never dropped below the trendline
- and notice how the avg for testing did
- testing is a problem

7/

covid cases/tests per wk
- cases are down this wk, 8%
- but not bc we did anything to slow transmission
- no, cases are down bc testing is down
- in fact, testing is down even more, 17%
- cases are up 48% over 2wks ago, testing only up 10%
- again, testing is a problem

8/

avg covid cases/tests per day per wk
- we're avg'ing 300 new cases per day over the past 2wks
- that's up 274% over the wk we moved into phase 2
- testing, meanwhile, is only up 30% in that time
- i'll say it again, testing is a big problem

9/

covid positivity per wk
- not only are cases growing, but bc cases are growing faster than testing, the positivity rate continues to grow...up to a record-high 13.6% this wk
- for context, at 10% you are missing a significant # of cases
- that means uncontrolled spread

10/

covid positivity
- notice how the blue lines hits a high of 9.9% on apr18
- then drops steadily from there
- plateaus at 6.8% in may/june
- and then rises steadily ever since, to 8.8% now, the highest since apr30

11/

i think it's important to note that not everyone is experiencing the local covid pandemic equally...
- shelby county is 40% white, but only 17% of covid cases are white ppl
- meanwhile, 28% of covid cases are Latinx and 57% are Black, both disproportionate

12/

and then there's deaths...
- the shelby county population is 52% African American
- but 62% of covid deaths have been Black ppl
- don't say #BlackLivesMatter if you refuse to protect Black ppl (either by personal actions, business decisions, or public policy)

13/

so what to do?
- we have to reframe our vision & goals
- ppl continue to talk abt 'flattening the curve'
- prob is, we did that...and then we reopened
- now the curve is flattening vertically instead of horizontally
- mitigation is not enough
- we've got to change course

14/

change course to what?
- the new vision has to be suppression
- we know it's possible...just look at europe
- the pop of the eu is roughly equal to the pop of the us
- but they have fewer than 5k cases/day, w/no growth
- we're over 60k/day + still growing

15/

how do we get to suppression?
- first, we have to shut down again & start over
- if you don't trust me, trust @HarvardGH
- i'm not sure we can get ppl to do stay home again, but it's the only way to get the spread under control (reminder: it's out of control right now)

16/

shut down? seriously?
- this is what ppl keep saying
- but don't have any other solutions
- italy, china, and south korea combined - like the all three countries together - are avg'ing fewer cases per day than we are in memphis
- guess what they did first? (shut down)

17/

ok, so shut down. then what?
- this is not new
- we've known what to do for months: test, trace, supported isolation (ttsi)
- here's pg1 of @paulmromer's roadmap to reopening...from apr
- and here is romer from last wk on @NewsHour
- here's harvard again

18/

testing, testing, 1, 2, 3...
- testing is a huge barrier right now
- harvard says you need to 408 tests/100k for mitigation and 1504/100k for suppression
- this wk, shelby county was at 228 tests/100k
- we need to increase testing 7-fold!

19/

i'm not really sure why our local leaders are not sounding the alarm about testing...
- just kidding, we know why
- they just want to be 'back to business'
- but you know what no longer exists?
- the 'back to business' website
- so let's forget that plan + write a new one

20/

new plan, better plan
- the old plan obviously didn't work
- partly bc it wasn't good enough
- we need the kind of ttsi plan mentioned above, starting w/mass testing
- but also, no plan will work w/o community engagement
- i wrote abt that here...

https://twitter.com/firstresponses/status/1277430147705077761

21/

what abt school?
- we need to reopen schools
- but we failed to make it a priority
- our reopening plan was called 'back to business'
- and it didn't mention 'back to school' at all
- the new plan must prioritize school
- it's too late for aug, though
- maybe shoot for oct?

22/

in case you missed it, @MemphisFlyer ran an interview i did with @TobySells in this wk's issue.

our data actually got worse after the interview, so i did a mid-wk update when it came out: https://twitter.com/firstresponses/status/1281041386704457736

read the full interview here: https://www.memphisflyer.com/memphis/data-driven/Content?oid=23331382

23/

also, who am i and why should you care abt my analysis?

https://firstresponses.blogspot.com/2020/06/covid-19-memphisshelby-county-updates.html

24/

while you're here, i was asked to record the prayers of the people for tomorrow's (virtual) worship service.

you can read the full prayer it here: https://firstresponses.blogspot.com/2020/07/prayers-of-people-july-12-2020.html

25/

one last thing: arrest the cops who killed breonna taylor.
#SayHerName #BreonnaTayor #BlackLivesMatter

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