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A story of two Unions: US vs EU
I've seen a lot of America vs EU comparisons so I wanted to do a deep dive and see what the data says.
There are 27 countries in the EU vs 50 states in the US
Each state has its own healthcare system as does each country
Here is the data
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I've seen a lot of America vs EU comparisons so I wanted to do a deep dive and see what the data says.
There are 27 countries in the EU vs 50 states in the US
Each state has its own healthcare system as does each country
Here is the data
1
First thing, I group countries into 3 categories:
Green: hit pretty hard early, burnout, doing well now
Blue: not hit as hard (fewer deaths/million), but result is similar to burnout
Red: Locked down early, virus is either rising again or remains at active at a low level
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Green: hit pretty hard early, burnout, doing well now
Blue: not hit as hard (fewer deaths/million), but result is similar to burnout
Red: Locked down early, virus is either rising again or remains at active at a low level
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First Europe
The Green countries we already know - burnout around 5-600, some with less
What is surprising is the number of blue countries. As I have said burnout is not a fixed number and may vary according to behavior.
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The Green countries we already know - burnout around 5-600, some with less
What is surprising is the number of blue countries. As I have said burnout is not a fixed number and may vary according to behavior.
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These 9 countries perform more like Asian countries. Two are small island nations, but the other seven are among the more culturally disciplined nations in the EU. Its WW1 allies (Ger, Aus, Hun), the Nordics (Den, Fin) and the Baltics (Lit, Est)
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Most countries in Europe shutdown. Also, unlike the US they closed their border to travelers, something that was not possible in the US
There were not huge policy differences between the countries
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There were not huge policy differences between the countries
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EU Thoughts:
-Green and Red r straightforward
-I am curious about Germany and the other blue countries. They didn't have any special policies that weren't placed in other countries
-Could these countries be more culturally disciplined?
-Will virus come back in these countries?
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-Green and Red r straightforward
-I am curious about Germany and the other blue countries. They didn't have any special policies that weren't placed in other countries
-Could these countries be more culturally disciplined?
-Will virus come back in these countries?
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Now US
Many green states performed horribly (NY, NJ, CT, MA, RI) compared to their European counterparts. Deaths/Million 2-3 times greater than in EU
Very few blue states to speak of. In fact I had to lower the bar a bit to find those blue states
Most of the country is Red
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Many green states performed horribly (NY, NJ, CT, MA, RI) compared to their European counterparts. Deaths/Million 2-3 times greater than in EU
Very few blue states to speak of. In fact I had to lower the bar a bit to find those blue states
Most of the country is Red
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If people continue to use cases as a relevant statistic, then they must also accept that the CFR in green states is more than 3 times higher than in the rest of the country!
The green states represent 30% of the population, 70% of deaths
Only green states needed lockdowns!
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The green states represent 30% of the population, 70% of deaths
Only green states needed lockdowns!
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Is it possible to be a blue state in America?
This is what "blue" state colorado looks like. I gave it to them because the death curve is going down
Culturally, I don't Americans are up for it
With masks now a political issue, don't think it's practical to think: be Germany
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This is what "blue" state colorado looks like. I gave it to them because the death curve is going down
Culturally, I don't Americans are up for it
With masks now a political issue, don't think it's practical to think: be Germany
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The problem for the red states is that they locked down because of the green states
The green states ruined their economies but now they are done with COVID.
Red states ruined their economies but still have to deal with COVID
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The green states ruined their economies but now they are done with COVID.
Red states ruined their economies but still have to deal with COVID
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EU vs US
-US tests much more than the EU
-50% of EU population is green, only 30% US. Green peak back in March/April saw less testing so less cases despite far more deaths
-70% of US population is blue/red. More testing available as virus spreads in June/July = more cases
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-US tests much more than the EU
-50% of EU population is green, only 30% US. Green peak back in March/April saw less testing so less cases despite far more deaths
-70% of US population is blue/red. More testing available as virus spreads in June/July = more cases
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Conclusions:
-Overall EU countries by category outperform US states
-Burnout for US likely to be higher than in EU given performance of green states - need to see how red states perform
-US not likely to have a "blue" future - Americans are not culturally like Germans!
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-Overall EU countries by category outperform US states
-Burnout for US likely to be higher than in EU given performance of green states - need to see how red states perform
-US not likely to have a "blue" future - Americans are not culturally like Germans!
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Conclusions (cont):
-Some green states performed well. Northeast was probably screwed before it even began locking down, but nursing home policies didn't help
-As red states progress to becoming green states, we'll then see how effective they were in managing Covid
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-Some green states performed well. Northeast was probably screwed before it even began locking down, but nursing home policies didn't help
-As red states progress to becoming green states, we'll then see how effective they were in managing Covid
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Conclusions (cont):
-Anybody praising how well green states are doing is lying
-Better to get to green statehood before Fall/Winter
-Summer lockdowns make zero sense
-Open the schools
If you're confused by the green, blue, red state thing read this:
14 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1280547634382606339?s=20
-Anybody praising how well green states are doing is lying
-Better to get to green statehood before Fall/Winter
-Summer lockdowns make zero sense
-Open the schools
If you're confused by the green, blue, red state thing read this:
14 https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1280547634382606339?s=20
I am encouraged by the fact that blue countries exist in the EU. It means that Asia probably does not have some sort of immunity to Covid
Its all about keeping the Rt below 1 and not letting down
Good news for US is that when they reach burnout, they’ll be less restricted
Its all about keeping the Rt below 1 and not letting down
Good news for US is that when they reach burnout, they’ll be less restricted
