Read on Twitter
Thread of commentary about the increased lag time between new cases and deaths:
1. About Simpson's Paradox, or why aggregating nationwide trends is misleading: https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880
1. About Simpson's Paradox, or why aggregating nationwide trends is misleading: https://twitter.com/mbeckett/status/1278750652160634880
2. Understanding lead time bias https://twitter.com/EpiEllie/status/1280305393516904448
3. The same pattern was seen in Iran https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1276326535901970432
4. Keep in mind that there are delays in reporting — this is why trends in general shouldn’t be deduced based on a handful of recent days. https://twitter.com/Brief_19/status/1290545839744536576
5. I personally suspect that the strongest factor affecting how cases vs. deaths trends correlate is age of those testing positive. Check out this heatmap — until mid-July most cases in FL were in people under 50. https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1290029180466298880
6. Another illustration of the reporting lag that leads to the need to 'backfill' data. https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1293270181754544128
7. And it's simple to debunk the often-false argument that more cases are an artifact of more testing, by looking at the rate of change in tests vs cases. https://twitter.com/sxbegle/status/1285176899719892993
8. Great thread synthesizing these points... however much one may hope otherwise, case surges bring fatalities in their wake. https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1296080742607355904
