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Thank you, Toby, for providing us a classic example of how to misinterpret seroprevalence data.
The stated 68% positive antibody test appears to be from CityMD, an urgent care facility in the NYC area that offers COVID-19 testing.t https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1281970751290122245
The stated 68% positive antibody test appears to be from CityMD, an urgent care facility in the NYC area that offers COVID-19 testing.t https://twitter.com/toadmeister/status/1281970751290122245
To me, this seems like a suspiciously high number, especially as a recently published study in the Lancet from Spain showed a seroprevalence level of around 5% https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext
So I took a quick look at CityMD's website, and to whom they offer the test, and here it is
In other words, OF THOSE WHO HAVE HAD SYMPTOMS, 68% have antibodies. This is completely different from 70% of the population as a whole developing immunity, the number thought to be required for any herd immunity protection from COVID-19.
Spain was amongst one of the worst hit in Europe, with 28,000 dead.
In order to achieve herd immunity, 14x more people will need to be infected, extrapolating in a simple manner to 392,000 deaths.
In order to achieve herd immunity, 14x more people will need to be infected, extrapolating in a simple manner to 392,000 deaths.
Without a vaccine, herd immunity is not a viable strategy.
Until we have a vaccine, maintaining social distancing, isolating infected individuals, mask wearing, and maintaining good hygiene is our best defence.
Stop peddling wrong science, Toby.
Until we have a vaccine, maintaining social distancing, isolating infected individuals, mask wearing, and maintaining good hygiene is our best defence.
Stop peddling wrong science, Toby.
Minor correction, CityMD will also offer walk-in tests to those who believe they have been exposed, even then there is a vast difference between that data and 70% population prevalence.
