What if - and bear with me here, this may be hard to understand - you don’t have a massive surge in people needing crisis care, just a lot of people testing Covid-positive and little overall change in hospital use? What then? (Texas screenshots below.) https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1281957916149518342
Overall capacity/use in SE Texas (includes Houston). See that blue line in the middle, @joshtpm? How it rises and falls seemingly at random despite the steady rise in the green? Weird, huh? Same thing in Arizona, btw.
Here’s ICU/vent use in SE Texas, and ICU use change in Arizona, where things are tightest, over the last 20 days. No matter how hard you try, you can’t make this a catastrophe. Maybe it becomes one, or maybe it fades slowly, we will see, but for now the hospitals are managing.
Which, I vaguely seem to recall, was the whole point of lockdowns, way back when (March, the old normal). Flatten the curve, remember? Not: nobody ever dies again.
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