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In the early days of the Cold War, the United States built an unprecedented system of alliances. In part because of its successes, that system now finds itself in peril.
Some thoughts from my new book “Shields of the Republic” for @ambassadorbrief 1 / 11
Some thoughts from my new book “Shields of the Republic” for @ambassadorbrief 1 / 11
1.The American alliance system has been remarkably effective – especially for the United States, allowing it to:
-practice forward defense (meeting threats overseas)
- deter conflict &
- assure and influence allies (bringing them along with preferred U.S. policies) 2/11
-practice forward defense (meeting threats overseas)
- deter conflict &
- assure and influence allies (bringing them along with preferred U.S. policies) 2/11
Successes of this system include:
- No U.S. ally was ever the victim of attack
- Management of many Cold War crises
- limiting nuclear proliferation
- helping transform wartime rivals, Germany & Japan into democracies & thriving economies
- buying the US political goodwill 3/11
- No U.S. ally was ever the victim of attack
- Management of many Cold War crises
- limiting nuclear proliferation
- helping transform wartime rivals, Germany & Japan into democracies & thriving economies
- buying the US political goodwill 3/11
2. US alliances have been a “good deal” in financial & political terms
The US spent a bit more on defense than allies:
- it did this by choice – to influence allied polices &
- spending isn't comparable -US has a global defense posture, where allies have regional postures 4/11
The US spent a bit more on defense than allies:
- it did this by choice – to influence allied polices &
- spending isn't comparable -US has a global defense posture, where allies have regional postures 4/11
And most importantly: any U.S. foreign policy that can rely on allies to share defense and political costs is far cheaper than one without. 5/11
3. America’s rivals are bent on unravelling its alliances – & Trump seems all too willing to help
- China is trying to cleave US allies from US protection with its A2/AD approaches
- Russia is trying to demonstrate to NATO that it can’t defend its eastern flank 6/11
- China is trying to cleave US allies from US protection with its A2/AD approaches
- Russia is trying to demonstrate to NATO that it can’t defend its eastern flank 6/11
And both Beijing and Moscow have developed non-military strategies for coercing US allies—which do not trigger American mutual defense commitments. They’re advancing their interests in the maritime, cyber, economic, and information spaces without activating alliances at all. 7/11
The U.S. president is now chipping away at the central logic of the system from within. His coercive behavior forces allies to doubt the United States, and they will increasingly go their own way. After 70 years of success, the system is in grave danger. 8/11
4. Policymakers can save America’s alliance system by remaking it. Alliances must be selectively broadened to include non-military domains. In a small set of cases, Washington and its allies should expand what their existing “Article V” collective defense commitments cover. 9/11
They can also use alliances to coordinate and prepare for other types of threats they cannot deter (investigating the implications of new tech like 5G, responding to China’s BRI, and securing supply chains ahead of the next global crisis). 10/11
You can read these points in greater depth in this piece for @ambassadorbrief here 11/11: https://www.ambassadorsbrief.com/posts/yaJJG5g7Zjaiae3Kg
And [BONUS] you can pick up a copy of the book here: https://bookshop.org/books/shields-of-the-republic-the-triumph-and-peril-of-america-s-alliances/9780674982956
