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Now that everyone better understands airborne transmission, I want to lay out a hopeful near-term strategy that should be feasible. 1/
Up to this point, most of the focus has been on individual-scale response or community-scale response. But there is something important in between. 2/ https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1278700288115986438
We know from the research of @AdamJKucharski that a small number of super-spreaders are responsible for the vast majority of cases. We need to focus on clusters and settings that breed clusters. 3/
Now look at what Japan did. They did traditional, individual-scale contact tracing, yes. But they focused on contact tracing to find clusters - and learned the conditions that breed them. 4/
Japan did a massive campaign to educate the public on these conditions. 5/
So what does this mean in the U.S.? First, close venues where the Three Cs overlap until there is a vaccine. Congress should pay these venues to remain closed. Nice piece here by @JHWeissmann on the idea: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/07/bars-covid-bailout-restaurants.html
Second, focus on restrospective contact tracing to find clusters. At the moment resources are limited and individual-scale contact tracing is unlikely to be very effective with such rampant baseline transmission/incidence.
Third, governors should lead. Educate the public. Talk about clusters and the conditions that breed them ad nauseum. The public does not understand airborne transmission in indoor spaces. Do a campaign equivalent to the Three Cs.
Important to note: the successful northeastern states are essentially following this strategy; they just have not articulated it.
