Crunched some numbers on what the world economy will look like in 2030-

tr $ GDP in 2020-
US+ Canada 22.5
EU+UK 16
CN+JP+IN+ http://SE.Asia  27
islamic world- ME+N.africa+pak 3.5-4
S.America 4
Africa 2.5
Russia+ neighbours 2.6

1

tr$ GDP in 2030 w. gdp growth/yr estimates

US @ 1.5% 22.5 -> 25
EU+UK @ 0.5-1% 16 -> 18
Asia @ 4.5%-5% 27-> 41
MEast @ 4% 4-> 5.3
Africa @ 5% 2.6-> 4.2
S.America @ 4% 4->6
Russia and co. @ 4% 2.6 -> 4

The biggest jump is Asia adding $13tr and matching combined GDP of EU+US

2

This is a simplification, and there is much uncertainty involved.
Caveats-
-Deglobalization ->low/shrinking trade. Asia grew for last 20 years by exporting to US/EU consumers and keeping currencies low. With export mkts gone, can domestic consumers replace it fully?

3

-Lot of energy is imported as oil/gas from ME, Russia, transition to EVs will cut imports drastically
-W.o need for exports to USD/EUR, no pressure to keep currencies weak, energy import drop- more fx strength
-US/EU need to delever, easiest way out-inflation + fx depreciation

4

-Asia depends a lot on USD funding, but has the means to be competitive w.o it. Transition away smooth or abrupt- unknown today.

-blocs w. big internal mkts will hv big enuf tech cos w. surplus to invest in R&D for deep learning, high perf computing, EVs, satellites, 5G

5

-Convergence of multiple techs at the same time gives big edge to the large econs- similar to FAANGs- will get bigger

-Asia will be close to historic share of world output, will the UN security council reflect that? Does G8 hold relevance if the largest econs are outside it?

6

-Marginal growth created is almost entirely in Asia. Even with CN closed to outsiders, India, SE Asia is open. Thats where the economic bubble will be in this decade.

Gap between blocs will widen drastically, bearish for energy exporters, bullish lrg internal consumer mkts

7/7