And it’s out! My deep dive into Himalayan plate tectonics. It might come in 300 years, or tomorrow, or today, but a megaquake is coming. Are we ready? I speak with scientists, architects & urban risk experts to find out: https://www.livemint.com/mint-lounge/features/the-big-himalayan-earthquake-is-coming-11594365372475.html

Localized small tremors have been spooking Delhi but they may not necessarily cause harm. The bigger threat is further north, in the Himalayan arc, where one or more earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above are due.

In the past 100 years, there have been two mega earthquakes, 1934 in Nepal-Bihar and 1950 on the India-Tibet border. 1934 liquefied parts of the Gangetic plain. 1950 caused landslides that dammed the tributaries of the Brahmaputra.

But they accounted for a small portion of the strain pent up in the Main Himalayan Thrust fault. The rest of the Himalaya too needs earthquakes like these.

“It’s like putting money in your savings account and never taking it out. In central Himalaya you have had very little release of that kind of energy.... to release this kind of stress built up over centuries, you need to have a massive earthquake”: Earth Scientist CP Rajendran

Geological scientist Roger Bilham spoke to me about his conclusions after reviewing 1,000 years of historical Himalayan earthquakes.

But are we ready? I spoke with urban risk expert @garimajain2002 of @iihsin. She says that Himalayan cities like Shimla are like “time bombs” in terms of exposure to earthquake hazards.

New Delhi has its own unique risk. 10% of Delhi’s buildings are actually designed structures. Most are self-constructed structures, JJ clusters, unauthorized colonies, resettlement colonies, urban villages & regularized unauthorized colonies.